Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Charlotte @ North Texas CLT @ UNT

CHARLOTTE

CHARLOTTECLT

0-6  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 3:30 PM ET
DATCU Stadium
View Odds Details →

NORTH TEXAS

NORTH TEXASUNT

4-2  |  Home

50
Key Game
Bronson Long
KEY GAME

Bronson Long

#95 | Punter
@
Ian Ratliff
KEY GAME

Ian Ratliff

#37 | Punter
Player
Bronson Long None-None
Ian Ratliff None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHARLOTTE
7%
📊
NORTH TEXAS
93%
▲ Edge: +1.70% (CLT)
CHARLOTTE 6% Book Odds: +1700
NORTH TEXAS 98% Book Odds: -4545
Book Implied: 5.60% / 97.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.5
Projected
Book Total
57.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 (Over)
Over 57.5 61%
Under 57.5 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+26.5
CHARLOTTE
Book Spread
+27.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Charlotte)
CharlotteCLT (+27.5) 0 North TexasUNT (-27.5)
Charlotte 49ers (+27.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Charlotte Cover

97.1%

North Texas Cover

2.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CLT +26.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLT)

CLT By 1-6 points

1.8%

CLT By 7-13 points

0.7%

UNT By 1-6 points

4.5%

UNT By 7-13 points

10.0%

AI Model Projected Score
18
CHARLOTTE
Book Implied: 15
44.5
NORTH TEXAS
Book Implied: 42.50
Simulated Score
15
CHARLOTTE
Book Implied: 15
45
NORTH TEXAS
Book Implied: 42.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI North Texas Win
93% Win Prob
A
Sim North Texas Win
100% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Charlotte (+27.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +26.5
D
Sim North Texas (-27.5) Win
Proj Spread: -30.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o57.5 Win
Proj Total: 62.5
B
Sim o57.5 Win
Proj Total: 60.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 CLT @ UNT 10 - 50
Oct 24, 2025 UNT @ CLT 54 - 20
Oct 10, 2020 CLT @ UNT 49 - 21
Oct 26, 2019 UNT @ CLT 38 - 39
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +165.2% more
North Texas: 28.2 vs Charlotte: 10.7
Total Yards (L5) +139.3% more
North Texas: 555.0 vs Charlotte: 231.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +127.3% more
North Texas: 202.6 vs Charlotte: 89.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +35.0% more
North Texas: 0.5 vs Charlotte: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLT Score 18.0 10
UNT Score 44.5 50
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 28.2 / 10.7 24.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 202.6 / 89.1 198.0 / 56.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.2 0.36 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 555.0 / 231.9 580.0 / 274.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 3.0 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1800 / -5000 → +1700 / -4545
2%TICKETS98%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +24.5 / -24.5 → +27.5 / -27.5 ↑
91%TICKETS9%
89%MONEY11%
Total (O/U)
Open: 62.5 → 57.5 ↓
69%TICKETS31%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLT
1-6-0 (14.3%)
Margin: -21.4 ATS +/-: -5.4
UNT Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 12.6 ATS +/-: +8.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLT
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -21.4 ATS +/-: -5.4
UNT Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 12.6 ATS +/-: +8.8
⚖️ Over/Under
CLT
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +7.1
UNT
6-1-0
O: 85.7% / U: 14.3% Total +/-: +14.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNT
CLT
UNT
CLT
ML
86% 6-1
71% 5-2
86% 6-1
71% 5-2
ATS
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
71% 5-2
TTL
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
71% 5-2
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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