Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UConn @ Temple CONN @ TEM

UCONN

UCONNCONN

3-3  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 3:45 PM ET
Lincoln Financial Field
View Odds Details →

TEMPLE

TEMPLETEM

2-4  |  Home

20
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Tommy Warner

#49 | Punter
@
Dante Atton
KEY GAME

Dante Atton

#7 | Punter
Player
Tommy Warner None-None
Dante Atton None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UCONN
61%
📊
TEMPLE
39%
▲ Edge: +20.90% (CONN)
UCONN 40% Book Odds: +150
TEMPLE 64% Book Odds: -180
Book Implied: 40% / 64.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.5
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
Over 55.5 49%
Under 55.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.5
UCONN
Book Spread
+3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (UConn)
UConnCONN (+3.5) 0 TempleTEM (-3.5)
UConn Huskies (+3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UConn Cover

62.6%

Temple Cover

37.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CONN -4.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CONN)

CONN By 1-6 points

16.9%

CONN By 7-13 points

18.3%

TEM By 1-6 points

14.4%

TEM By 7-13 points

11.7%

AI Model Projected Score
30
UCONN
Book Implied: 26
25.5
TEMPLE
Book Implied: 29.50
Simulated Score
29
UCONN
Book Implied: 26
22
TEMPLE
Book Implied: 29.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI UConn Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim UConn Win
75% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI UConn (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.5
A
Sim UConn (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u55.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.5
D
Sim u55.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 CONN @ TEM 34 - 20
Oct 5, 2024 TEM @ CONN 20 - 29
Nov 30, 2019 CONN @ TEM 17 - 49
Nov 24, 2018 TEM @ CONN 57 - 7
Oct 14, 2017 CONN @ TEM 28 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +45.6% more
UConn: 1.4 vs Temple: 0.7
First Downs (L5) +25.7% more
UConn: 22.5 vs Temple: 16.7
Total Yards (L5) +20.0% more
UConn: 434.1 vs Temple: 347.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +11.2% more
Temple: 195.6 vs UConn: 175.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CONN Score 30.0 34
TEM Score 25.5 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.7 / 22.5 21.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 195.6 / 175.9 148.0 / 248.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.42 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 347.2 / 434.1 437.0 / 505.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.4 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +154 / -185 → +150 / -180 ↓
13%TICKETS87%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3.5 / -3.5 → +3.5 / -3.5
61%TICKETS39%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: 54.5 → 55.5 ↑
62%TICKETS38%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CONN Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +10.4
TEM
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CONN Advantage
4-1-1 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +10.4
TEM
4-2-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
CONN
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +7.7
TEM
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEM
CONN
TEM
CONN
ML
71% 5-2
71% 5-2
71% 5-2
43% 3-4
ATS
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
TTL
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
71% 5-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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