Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Minnesota @ Purdue MINN @ PUR

MINNESOTA

MINNESOTAMINN

4-2  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 8:00 PM ET
Ross-Ade Stadium
View Odds Details →

PURDUE

PURDUEPUR

3-3  |  Home

41
Key Game
Luke Drzewiecki
KEY GAME

Luke Drzewiecki

#-- | Place kicker
@
Jacobo Echeverria Lozano
KEY GAME

Jacobo Echeverria Lozano

#92 | Place kicker
Player
Luke Drzewiecki None-None
Jacobo Echeverria Lozano None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MINNESOTA
71%
📊
PURDUE
29%
▲ Edge: +11.80% (MINN)
MINNESOTA 59% Book Odds: -142
PURDUE 46% Book Odds: +120
Book Implied: 58.70% / 45.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.6
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +7.1 (Over)
Over 49.5 65%
Under 49.5 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
-2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 points (Minnesota)
MinnesotaMINN (-2.5) 0 PurduePUR (+2.5)
Minnesota Golden Gophers (-2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Minnesota Cover

74.0%

Purdue Cover

26.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MINN -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MINN)

MINN By 1-6 points

15.7%

MINN By 7-13 points

19.7%

PUR By 1-6 points

11.5%

PUR By 7-13 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
32.8
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 26
23.8
PURDUE
Book Implied: 23.50
Simulated Score
24
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 26
30
PURDUE
Book Implied: 23.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Minnesota Loss
71% Win Prob
A
Sim Purdue Win
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Minnesota (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
B
Sim Purdue (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o49.5 Win
Proj Total: 56.6
B
Sim o49.5 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 MINN @ PUR 13 - 41
Oct 11, 2025 PUR @ MINN 20 - 27
Nov 11, 2023 MINN @ PUR 30 - 49
Oct 1, 2022 PUR @ MINN 20 - 10
Oct 2, 2021 MINN @ PUR 20 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +30.2% more
Minnesota: 121.7 vs Purdue: 85.0
Turnovers (L5) +25.6% more
Minnesota: 1.2 vs Purdue: 0.9
Total Yards (L5) +12.2% more
Purdue: 352.0 vs Minnesota: 313.7
First Downs (L5) +11.8% more
Purdue: 20.1 vs Minnesota: 18.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MINN Score 32.8 13
PUR Score 23.8 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.1 / 18.0 27.0 / 10.0
Rushing Yards 85.0 / 121.7 305.0 / 27.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.42 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.62 / 0.38
Total Yards 352.0 / 313.7 464.0 / 275.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.2 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -127 / +109 → -142 / +120 ↓
90%TICKETS10%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -2.5 / +2.5 → -2.5 / +2.5
78%TICKETS22%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 49.5 ↓
57%TICKETS43%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MINN Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 6.4 ATS +/-: +0.7
PUR
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MINN Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 6.4 ATS +/-: +0.7
PUR
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MINN
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.5
PUR
6-1-0
O: 85.7% / U: 14.3% Total +/-: +9.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PUR
MINN
PUR
MINN
ML
71% 5-2
29% 2-5
86% 6-1
86% 6-1
ATS
33% 2-4-1
43% 3-4
67% 4-2-1
57% 4-3
TTL
71% 5-2
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
29% 2-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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