Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Illinois @ Michigan St ILL @ MSU

ILLINOIS

ILLINOISILL

3-3  |  Road

38
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 3:30 PM ET
Spartan Stadium
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN STATE

MICHIGAN STMSU

2-4  |  Home

37
Key Game
Lars Rau
KEY GAME

Lars Rau

#81 | Punter
@
Rhys Dakin
KEY GAME

Rhys Dakin

#9 | Punter
Player
Lars Rau None-None
Rhys Dakin None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ILLINOIS
72%
📊
MICHIGAN ST
28%
▲ Edge: +13.50% (ILL)
ILLINOIS 59% Book Odds: -142
MICHIGAN ST 46% Book Odds: +120
Book Implied: 58.70% / 45.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.4
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 (Over)
Over 48.5 55%
Under 48.5 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
-2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 points (Illinois)
IllinoisILL (-2.5) 0 Michigan StMSU (+2.5)
Illinois Fighting Illini (-2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Illinois Cover

76.2%

Michigan St Cover

23.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ILL -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)

ILL By 1-6 points

15.3%

ILL By 7-13 points

19.7%

MSU By 1-6 points

10.7%

MSU By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
30.2
ILLINOIS
Book Implied: 25.50
20.2
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Implied: 23
Simulated Score
28
ILLINOIS
Book Implied: 25.50
27
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Implied: 23
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Illinois Win
72% Win Prob
A
Sim Illinois Win
55% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Illinois (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
A
Sim Michigan St (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.4
C
Sim o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 ILL @ MSU 38 - 37
Nov 16, 2024 MSU @ ILL 16 - 38
Nov 5, 2022 MSU @ ILL 23 - 15
Nov 9, 2019 ILL @ MSU 37 - 34
Nov 5, 2016 MSU @ ILL 27 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +28.9% more
Illinois: 395.9 vs Michigan State: 281.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +28.1% more
Illinois: 151.6 vs Michigan State: 109.0
First Downs (L5) +15.9% more
Illinois: 23.2 vs Michigan State: 19.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Illinois: 0.5 vs Michigan State: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ILL Score 30.2 38
MSU Score 20.2 37
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.5 / 23.2 19.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 109.0 / 151.6 127.0 / 127.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.6 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 281.4 / 395.9 342.0 / 409.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 0.7 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -174 / +147 → -142 / +120 ↑
80%TICKETS20%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -3.5 / +3.5 → -2.5 / +2.5 ↑
57%TICKETS43%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50 → 48.5 ↓
53%TICKETS47%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILL Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: +0.4
MSU
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILL
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: +0.4
MSU Advantage
4-3-1 (57.1%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ILL
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +2.1
MSU
2-6-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSU
ILL
MSU
ILL
ML
100% 8-0
57% 4-3
62% 5-3
57% 4-3
ATS
57% 4-3-1
29% 2-5
43% 3-4-1
86% 6-1
TTL
50% 4-4
71% 5-2
25% 2-6
57% 4-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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