Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Wake Forest @ NC State WAKE @ NCSU

WAKE FOREST

WAKE FORESTWAKE

5-1  |  Road

38
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 12:00 PM ET
Carter-Finley Stadium
View Odds Details →

NC STATE

NC STATENCSU

3-3  |  Home

14
Key Game
Ethan Hyams
KEY GAME

Ethan Hyams

#45 | Punter
@
Chase Bond
KEY GAME

Chase Bond

#92 | Defensive End
Player
Ethan Hyams None-None
Chase Bond None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WAKE FOREST
43%
📊
NC STATE
57%
▲ Edge: +16.30% (NCSU)
WAKE FOREST 64% Book Odds: -175
NC STATE 41% Book Odds: +145
Book Implied: 63.60% / 40.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.6
Projected
Book Total
56.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 (Over)
Over 56.5 50%
Under 56.5 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
NC STATE
Book Spread
+3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 points (NC State)
Wake ForestWAKE (-3.5) 0 NC StateNCSU (+3.5)
NC State Wolfpack (+3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wake Forest Cover

41.5%

NC State Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NCSU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NCSU)

WAKE By 1-6 points

15.3%

WAKE By 7-13 points

12.9%

NCSU By 1-6 points

17.0%

NCSU By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
26.8
WAKE FOREST
Book Implied: 30
29.8
NC STATE
Book Implied: 26.50
Simulated Score
22
WAKE FOREST
Book Implied: 30
38
NC STATE
Book Implied: 26.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI NC State Loss
57% Win Prob
C
Sim NC State Loss
94% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI NC State (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Sim NC State (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o56.5 Loss
Proj Total: 56.6
D
Sim o56.5 Loss
Proj Total: 60.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 WAKE @ NCSU 38 - 14
Sep 11, 2025 NCSU @ WAKE 34 - 24
Oct 5, 2024 WAKE @ NCSU 34 - 30
Nov 11, 2023 NCSU @ WAKE 26 - 6
Nov 5, 2022 WAKE @ NCSU 21 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +23.0% more
NC State: 1.2 vs Wake Forest: 1.0
Time of Possession (L5) +13.0% more
NC State: 0.6 vs Wake Forest: 0.5
First Downs (L5) +10.9% more
NC State: 25.1 vs Wake Forest: 22.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +10.2% more
NC State: 179.6 vs Wake Forest: 163.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WAKE Score 26.8 38
NCSU Score 29.8 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.1 / 22.6 16.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 179.6 / 163.0 15.0 / 84.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.54
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 473.4 / 448.4 258.0 / 387.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -130 / +110 → -175 / +145 ↓
85%TICKETS15%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -2.5 / +2.5 → -3.5 / +3.5 ↓
60%TICKETS40%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: 60.5 → 56.5 ↓
59%TICKETS41%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WAKE Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +14.1
NCSU
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 4.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WAKE Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +14.1
NCSU
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: 4.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
WAKE
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: +2.6
NCSU
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +6.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NCSU
WAKE
NCSU
WAKE
ML
57% 4-3
71% 5-2
71% 5-2
71% 5-2
ATS
71% 5-2
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
TTL
43% 3-4
71% 5-2
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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