Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Virginia Tech @ California VT @ CAL

VIRGINIA TECH

VIRGINIA TECHVT

4-2  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 3:30 PM ET
California Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

CALIFORNIA

CALIFORNIACAL

3-3  |  Home

25
Key Game
John Love
KEY GAME

John Love

#17 | Place kicker
@
Angus Davies
KEY GAME

Angus Davies

#29 | Punter
Player
John Love None-None
Angus Davies None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VIRGINIA TECH
31%
📊
CALIFORNIA
69%
▲ Edge: +44.40% (CAL)
VIRGINIA TECH 79% Book Odds: -381
CALIFORNIA 24% Book Odds: +309
Book Implied: 79.20% / 24.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.5
Projected
Book Total
53.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 (Over)
Over 53.0 62%
Under 53.0 38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.5
CALIFORNIA
Book Spread
+10
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.5 points (California)
Virginia TechVT (-10) 0 CaliforniaCAL (+10)
California Golden Bears (+10) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Virginia Tech Cover

27.2%

California Cover

72.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CAL -8.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAL)

VT By 1-6 points

11.8%

VT By 7-13 points

8.4%

CAL By 1-6 points

15.9%

CAL By 7-13 points

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
25
VIRGINIA TECH
Book Implied: 31.50
33.5
CALIFORNIA
Book Implied: 21.50
Simulated Score
27
VIRGINIA TECH
Book Implied: 31.50
30
CALIFORNIA
Book Implied: 21.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI California Win
69% Win Prob
A
Sim California Win
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI California (+10) Win
Proj Spread: -8.5
A
Sim California (+10) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o53.0 Loss
Proj Total: 58.5
B
Sim o53.0 Loss
Proj Total: 57.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 VT @ CAL 20 - 25
Oct 24, 2025 CAL @ VT 34 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +36.9% more
Virginia Tech: 140.8 vs California: 88.8
Turnovers (L5) +34.3% more
Virginia Tech: 2.1 vs California: 1.4
First Downs (L5) +11.0% more
Virginia Tech: 22.4 vs California: 19.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VT Score 25.0 20
CAL Score 33.5 25
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.9 / 22.4 24.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 88.8 / 140.8 82.0 / 113.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 404.2 / 437.0 403.0 / 401.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 2.1 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -372 / +285 → -381 / +309 ↓
98%TICKETS2%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -9.5 / +9.5 → -10 / +10 ↓
9%TICKETS91%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53 → 53
70%TICKETS30%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VT Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +0.9
CAL
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -8.3 ATS +/-: -9.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VT Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +0.9
CAL
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.3 ATS +/-: -9.3
⚖️ Over/Under
VT
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +3.6
CAL
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAL
VT
CAL
VT
ML
50% 4-4
62% 5-3
75% 6-2
62% 5-3
ATS
25% 2-6
38% 3-5
50% 4-4
38% 3-5
TTL
50% 4-4
12% 1-7
75% 6-2
50% 4-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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