Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Syracuse @ Virginia SYR @ UVA

SYRACUSE

SYRACUSESYR

2-3  |  Road

25
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 7:30 PM ET
Scott Stadium
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA

VIRGINIAUVA

4-2  |  Home

28
Key Game
Shay Barker
KEY GAME

Shay Barker

#40 | Place kicker
@
Will Bettridge
KEY GAME

Will Bettridge

#41 | Place kicker
Player
Shay Barker None-None
Will Bettridge None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SYRACUSE
16%
📊
VIRGINIA
84%
SYRACUSE 20% Book Odds: +410
VIRGINIA 85% Book Odds: -550
Book Implied: 19.60% / 84.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.5
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 (Over)
Over 49.5 65%
Under 49.5 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.5
VIRGINIA
Book Spread
-14
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Virginia)
SyracuseSYR (+14) 0 VirginiaUVA (-14)
Virginia Cavaliers (-14) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Syracuse Cover

10.6%

Virginia Cover

89.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UVA -17.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVA)

SYR By 1-6 points

5.6%

SYR By 7-13 points

3.0%

UVA By 1-6 points

10.4%

UVA By 7-13 points

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
19.5
SYRACUSE
Book Implied: 17.80
37
VIRGINIA
Book Implied: 31.80
Simulated Score
19
SYRACUSE
Book Implied: 17.80
32
VIRGINIA
Book Implied: 31.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Virginia Win
84% Win Prob
A
Sim Virginia Win
90% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Virginia (-14) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.5
B
Sim Syracuse (+14) Win
Proj Spread: +13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o49.5 Win
Proj Total: 56.5
B
Sim o49.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 SYR @ UVA 25 - 28
Sep 23, 2022 UVA @ SYR 20 - 22
Oct 17, 2015 SYR @ UVA 38 - 44
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +69.5% more
Syracuse: 1.9 vs Virginia: 0.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +28.3% more
Syracuse: 159.5 vs Virginia: 114.4
Total Yards (L5) +12.5% more
Syracuse: 413.2 vs Virginia: 361.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Syracuse: 0.5 vs Virginia: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SYR Score 19.5 25
UVA Score 37.0 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.2 / 25.1 18.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 114.4 / 159.5 169.0 / 163.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.3 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 361.4 / 413.2 288.0 / 430.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 1.9 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +284 / -370 → +410 / -550 ↑
5%TICKETS95%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +9.5 / -9.5 → +14 / -14 ↑
48%TICKETS52%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 49.5
62%TICKETS38%
37%MONEY63%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SYR
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +5.4
UVA Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.6 ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SYR Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +5.4
UVA
3-4-1 (42.9%)
Margin: 8.6 ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SYR
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +4.8
UVA
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVA
SYR
UVA
SYR
ML
75% 6-2
71% 5-2
75% 6-2
86% 6-1
ATS
43% 3-4-1
43% 3-4
43% 3-4-1
86% 6-1
TTL
50% 4-4
57% 4-3
12% 1-7
71% 5-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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