Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / North Carolina @ Pitt UNC @ PITT

NORTH CAROLINA

NORTH CAROLINAUNC

3-2  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 12:00 PM ET
Acrisure Stadium
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PITTPITT

5-1  |  Home

17
Key Game
Aeron Burrell
KEY GAME

Aeron Burrell

#92 | Place kicker
@
Gabe Russo
KEY GAME

Gabe Russo

#98 | Punter
Player
Aeron Burrell None-None
Gabe Russo None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NORTH CAROLINA
20%
📊
PITT
80%
▲ Edge: +16.60% (PITT)
NORTH CAROLINA 41% Book Odds: +145
PITT 64% Book Odds: -175
Book Implied: 40.80% / 63.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.5
Projected
Book Total
47.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 47.5 57%
Under 47.5 43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.5
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
-3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Pittsburgh)
North CarolinaUNC (+3.5) 0 PittPITT (-3.5)
Pittsburgh Panthers (-3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

North Carolina Cover

15.0%

Pitt Cover

85.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PITT -14.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PITT)

UNC By 1-6 points

7.5%

UNC By 7-13 points

4.4%

PITT By 1-6 points

12.5%

PITT By 7-13 points

18.8%

AI Model Projected Score
17.5
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Implied: 22
32
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 25.50
Simulated Score
20
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Implied: 22
35
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 25.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Pitt Loss
80% Win Prob
A
Sim Pitt Loss
93% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Pitt (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.5
A
Sim Pitt (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o47.5 Loss
Proj Total: 49.5
C
Sim o47.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 UNC @ PITT 21 - 17
Oct 5, 2024 PITT @ UNC 34 - 24
Sep 23, 2023 UNC @ PITT 41 - 24
Oct 29, 2022 PITT @ UNC 24 - 42
Nov 11, 2021 UNC @ PITT 23 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +37.8% more
Pittsburgh: 442.3 vs North Carolina: 320.8
First Downs (L5) +21.7% more
Pittsburgh: 23.3 vs North Carolina: 19.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +20.8% more
Pittsburgh: 148.9 vs North Carolina: 123.3
Turnovers (L5) +48.5% more
North Carolina: 1.3 vs Pittsburgh: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNC Score 17.5 21
PITT Score 32.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.3 / 19.2 23.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 148.9 / 123.3 150.0 / 20.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.61 / 0.39
Total Yards 442.3 / 320.8 369.0 / 269.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.3 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +136 / -162 → +145 / -175 ↑
14%TICKETS86%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +4.5 / -4.5 → +3.5 / -3.5 ↓
45%TICKETS55%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: 46.5 → 47.5 ↑
63%TICKETS37%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNC
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +2.7
PITT Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNC Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +2.7
PITT
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UNC
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -2.6
PITT
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PITT
UNC
PITT
UNC
ML
75% 6-2
43% 3-4
62% 5-3
57% 4-3
ATS
62% 5-3
43% 3-4
25% 2-6
71% 5-2
TTL
38% 3-5
43% 3-4
75% 6-2
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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