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UCF

UCFUCF

3-3  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 12:00 PM ET
Boone Pickens Stadium
View Odds Details →

OKLAHOMA STATE

OKLAHOMA STOKST

4-1  |  Home

42
Key Game
Atticus Bertrams
KEY GAME

Atticus Bertrams

#49 | Punter
@
Lachie Pozzobon
KEY GAME

Lachie Pozzobon

#37 | Punter
Player
Atticus Bertrams None-None
Lachie Pozzobon None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UCF
66%
📊
OKLAHOMA ST
34%
▲ Edge: +41.70% (UCF)
UCF 24% Book Odds: +310
OKLAHOMA ST 80% Book Odds: -395
Book Implied: 24.40% / 79.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.0
Projected
Book Total
53.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 53.5 50%
Under 53.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
UCF
Book Spread
+10.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.5 points (UCF)
UCFUCF (+10.5) 0 Oklahoma StOKST (-10.5)
UCF Knights (+10.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UCF Cover

69.1%

Oklahoma St Cover

30.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UCF -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCF)

UCF By 1-6 points

16.5%

UCF By 7-13 points

19.3%

OKST By 1-6 points

12.9%

OKST By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
30
UCF
Book Implied: 21.50
23
OKLAHOMA STATE
Book Implied: 32
Simulated Score
24
UCF
Book Implied: 21.50
31
OKLAHOMA STATE
Book Implied: 32
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI UCF Loss
66% Win Prob
B
Sim Oklahoma St Win
75% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI UCF (+10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Sim UCF (+10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 53.0
D
Sim o53.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 UCF @ OKST 28 - 42
Nov 22, 2025 OKST @ UCF 14 - 17
Nov 11, 2023 OKST @ UCF 3 - 45
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +62.8% more
Oklahoma State: 24.9 vs UCF: 15.3
Total Yards (L5) +59.1% more
Oklahoma State: 521.1 vs UCF: 327.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +55.9% more
Oklahoma State: 204.9 vs UCF: 131.4
Turnovers (L5) +30.4% more
Oklahoma State: 1.6 vs UCF: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCF Score 30.0 28
OKST Score 23.0 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.9 / 15.3 22.0 / 27.0
Rushing Yards 204.9 / 131.4 110.0 / 110.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.44 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 521.1 / 327.5 414.0 / 375.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.3 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +310 / -395 → +310 / -395
3%TICKETS97%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +10 / -10 → +10.5 / -10.5 ↑
77%TICKETS23%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 53.5 ↑
41%TICKETS59%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCF
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 9.7 ATS +/-: +6.6
OKST Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 16.3 ATS +/-: +7.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCF
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 9.7 ATS +/-: +6.6
OKST Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 16.3 ATS +/-: +7.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UCF
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +4.1
OKST
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +4.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKST
UCF
OKST
UCF
ML
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
71% 5-2
86% 6-1
ATS
29% 2-5
29% 2-5
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
TTL
29% 2-5
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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