Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Arizona @ West Virginia ARIZ @ WVU

ARIZONA

ARIZONAARIZ

5-1  |  Road

52
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 12:00 PM ET
Milan Puskar Stadium
View Odds Details →

WEST VIRGINIA

WEST VIRGINIAWVU

3-3  |  Home

31
Key Game
Chase Ridley
KEY GAME

Chase Ridley

#37 | Punter
@
Bryan Hansen
KEY GAME

Bryan Hansen

#83 | Punter
Player
Chase Ridley None-None
Bryan Hansen None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARIZONA
68%
📊
WEST VIRGINIA
32%
▲ Edge: +4.80% (ARIZ)
ARIZONA 64% Book Odds: -175
WEST VIRGINIA 41% Book Odds: +145
Book Implied: 63.60% / 40.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.6
Projected
Book Total
61.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +9.9 (Under)
Over 61.5 31%
Under 61.5 69%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
-3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Arizona)
ArizonaARIZ (-3.5) 0 West VirginiaWVU (+3.5)
Arizona Wildcats (-3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Arizona Cover

71.6%

West Virginia Cover

28.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ARIZ -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARIZ)

ARIZ By 1-6 points

16.1%

ARIZ By 7-13 points

19.5%

WVU By 1-6 points

12.2%

WVU By 7-13 points

8.8%

AI Model Projected Score
29.8
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 32.50
21.8
WEST VIRGINIA
Book Implied: 29
Simulated Score
24
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 32.50
30
WEST VIRGINIA
Book Implied: 29
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Arizona Win
68% Win Prob
A
Sim West Virginia Loss
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Arizona (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
B
Sim West Virginia (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u61.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.6
A
Sim u61.5 Loss
Proj Total: 54.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 ARIZ @ WVU 52 - 31
Oct 26, 2024 WVU @ ARIZ 31 - 26
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +15.1% more
Arizona: 25.3 vs West Virginia: 21.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Arizona: 0.6 vs West Virginia: 0.5
Time of Possession (L5) +12.0% more
Arizona: 0.6 vs West Virginia: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +61.4% more
West Virginia: 271.2 vs Arizona: 168.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARIZ Score 29.8 52
WVU Score 21.8 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.5 / 25.3 30.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 271.2 / 168.0 303.0 / 141.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.6 0.47 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.6 0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards 461.1 / 458.5 522.0 / 482.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.1 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -135 / +114 → -175 / +145 ↓
81%TICKETS19%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -2.5 / +2.5 → -3.5 / +3.5 ↓
47%TICKETS53%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: 58.5 → 61.5 ↑
66%TICKETS34%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARIZ Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 19.4 ATS +/-: +5.9
WVU
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARIZ
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 19.4 ATS +/-: +5.9
WVU Advantage
4-3-1 (57.1%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ARIZ
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.6
WVU
7-1-0
O: 87.5% / U: 12.5% Total +/-: +10.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WVU
ARIZ
WVU
ARIZ
ML
50% 4-4
100% 7-0
38% 3-5
71% 5-2
ATS
29% 2-5-1
71% 5-2
29% 2-5-1
43% 3-4
TTL
43% 3-4-1
29% 2-5
0% 0-7-1
14% 1-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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