Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Hawai'i @ Arizona St HAW @ ASU

HAWAI'I

HAWAI'IHAW

1-5  |  Road

12
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 10:30 PM ET
Mountain America Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA STATE

ARIZONA STASU

3-2  |  Home

30
Key Game
Gehrig Heil
KEY GAME

Gehrig Heil

#47 | Punter
@
Nick McLarty
KEY GAME

Nick McLarty

#35 | Punter
Player
Gehrig Heil None-None
Nick McLarty None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
HAWAI'I
12%
📊
ARIZONA ST
88%
▲ Edge: +2.40% (HAW)
HAWAI'I 10% Book Odds: +950
ARIZONA ST 94% Book Odds: -1650
Book Implied: 9.50% / 94.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.0
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 (Over)
Over 51.5 62%
Under 51.5 38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+21.0
HAWAI'I
Book Spread
+21
Book Line
Hawai'iHAW (+21) 0 Arizona StASU (-21)
Line aligns with book spread (+21)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hawai'i Cover

93.3%

Arizona St Cover

6.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around HAW +21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HAW)

HAW By 1-6 points

3.8%

HAW By 7-13 points

1.8%

ASU By 1-6 points

7.9%

ASU By 7-13 points

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
18
HAWAI'I
Book Implied: 15.20
39
ARIZONA STATE
Book Implied: 36.20
Simulated Score
27
HAWAI'I
Book Implied: 15.20
30
ARIZONA STATE
Book Implied: 36.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Arizona St Win
88% Win Prob
A
Sim Arizona St Win
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hawai'i (-21) Loss
Proj Spread: +21.0
D
Sim Hawai'i (+21) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 57.0
B
Sim o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 57.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 HAW @ ASU 12 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +119.0% more
Arizona State: 2.3 vs Hawai'i: 1.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +47.0% more
Arizona State: 142.6 vs Hawai'i: 97.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HAW Score 18.0 12
ASU Score 39.0 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.0 / 19.8 21.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 142.6 / 97.1 231.0 / 64.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.3 / 0.37
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 391.6 / 386.9 420.0 / 316.0
Turnovers 2.3 / 1.1 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +915 / -1849 → +950 / -1650 ↓
1%TICKETS99%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +22 / -22 → +21 / -21 ↓
42%TICKETS58%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51 → 51.5 ↑
62%TICKETS38%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HAW
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -3.8 ATS +/-: -0.4
ASU Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -4.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HAW Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.8 ATS +/-: -0.4
ASU
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -4.8
⚖️ Over/Under
HAW
2-6-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.5
ASU
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +9.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ASU
HAW
ASU
HAW
ML
57% 4-3
62% 5-3
71% 5-2
75% 6-2
ATS
29% 2-5
50% 4-4
29% 2-5
75% 6-2
TTL
57% 4-3
38% 3-5
43% 3-4
25% 2-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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