Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / South Carolina @ Florida SC @ FLA

SOUTH CAROLINA

SOUTH CAROLINASC

3-3  |  Road

38
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 12:45 PM ET
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA

FLORIDAFLA

4-2  |  Home

19
Key Game
Malik Orsan
KEY GAME

Malik Orsan

#32 | Place kicker
@
Alec Clark
KEY GAME

Alec Clark

#38 | Punter
Player
Malik Orsan None-None
Alec Clark None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SOUTH CAROLINA
38%
📊
FLORIDA
62%
▲ Edge: +15.80% (SC)
SOUTH CAROLINA 22% Book Odds: +350
FLORIDA 82% Book Odds: -455
Book Implied: 22.20% / 82%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
61.4
Projected
Book Total
59.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 (Over)
Over 59.5 55%
Under 59.5 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
SOUTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
+10.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 points (South Carolina)
South CarolinaSC (+10.5) 0 FloridaFLA (-10.5)
South Carolina Gamecocks (+10.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

South Carolina Cover

64.0%

Florida Cover

36.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SC +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SC)

SC By 1-6 points

14.2%

SC By 7-13 points

11.3%

FLA By 1-6 points

16.9%

FLA By 7-13 points

18.5%

AI Model Projected Score
28.2
SOUTH CAROLINA
Book Implied: 24.50
33.2
FLORIDA
Book Implied: 35
Simulated Score
22
SOUTH CAROLINA
Book Implied: 24.50
30
FLORIDA
Book Implied: 35
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Florida Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Florida Loss
79% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI South Carolina (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
B
Sim South Carolina (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: +8.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o59.5 Loss
Proj Total: 61.4
C
Sim u59.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 SC @ FLA 38 - 19
Oct 14, 2023 FLA @ SC 41 - 39
Nov 12, 2022 SC @ FLA 6 - 38
Nov 6, 2021 FLA @ SC 17 - 40
Oct 3, 2020 SC @ FLA 24 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +70.2% more
South Carolina: 1.9 vs Florida: 0.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +18.7% more
South Carolina: 221.2 vs Florida: 179.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SC Score 28.2 38
FLA Score 33.2 19
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.8 / 21.9 20.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 179.7 / 221.2 120.0 / 114.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.46 / 0.62
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 429.7 / 455.7 387.0 / 393.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 1.9 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +425 / -575 → +350 / -455 ↓
1%TICKETS99%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +14 / -14 → +10.5 / -10.5 ↓
29%TICKETS71%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: 58.5 → 59.5 ↑
66%TICKETS34%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SC
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 10.9 ATS +/-: +1.5
FLA Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 11.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SC
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 10.9 ATS +/-: +1.5
FLA Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 11.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SC
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +6.2
FLA
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +9.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FLA
SC
FLA
SC
ML
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
71% 5-2
ATS
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
29% 2-5
TTL
57% 4-3
29% 2-5
57% 4-3
71% 5-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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