Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UCLA @ Oregon UCLA @ ORE

UCLA

UCLAUCLA

5-0  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 3:30 PM ET
Autzen Stadium
View Odds Details →

OREGON

OREGONORE

3-2  |  Home

15
Key Game
Curtis Gerrand
KEY GAME

Curtis Gerrand

#35 | Punter
@
Bailey Ettridge
KEY GAME

Bailey Ettridge

#39 | Punter
Player
Curtis Gerrand None-None
Bailey Ettridge None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UCLA
11%
📊
OREGON
89%
▲ Edge: +7.60% (ORE)
UCLA 23% Book Odds: +330
OREGON 81% Book Odds: -425
Book Implied: 23.30% / 81%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
65.0
Projected
Book Total
57.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 (Over)
Over 57.5 66%
Under 57.5 34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.4
OREGON
Book Spread
-10.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.9 points (Oregon)
UCLAUCLA (+10.5) 0 OregonORE (-10.5)
Oregon Ducks (-10.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UCLA Cover

6.3%

Oregon Cover

93.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ORE -21.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORE)

UCLA By 1-6 points

3.6%

UCLA By 7-13 points

1.7%

ORE By 1-6 points

7.6%

ORE By 7-13 points

14.3%

AI Model Projected Score
21.8
UCLA
Book Implied: 23.50
43.2
OREGON
Book Implied: 34
Simulated Score
20
UCLA
Book Implied: 23.50
35
OREGON
Book Implied: 34
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Oregon Loss
89% Win Prob
A
Sim Oregon Loss
93% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Oregon (-10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.4
A
Sim Oregon (-10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o57.5 Loss
Proj Total: 65.0
A
Sim u57.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 UCLA @ ORE 17 - 15
Sep 28, 2024 ORE @ UCLA 34 - 13
Oct 22, 2022 UCLA @ ORE 30 - 45
Oct 23, 2021 ORE @ UCLA 34 - 31
Nov 21, 2020 UCLA @ ORE 35 - 38
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +13.1% more
Oregon: 24.9 vs UCLA: 22.0
Total Yards (L5) +12.1% more
Oregon: 512.2 vs UCLA: 456.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Oregon: 0.5 vs UCLA: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +47.3% more
UCLA: 1.1 vs Oregon: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCLA Score 21.8 17
ORE Score 43.2 15
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.9 / 22.0 12.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 162.6 / 250.6 73.0 / 140.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.08 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.35 / 0.65
Total Yards 512.2 / 456.8 272.0 / 345.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 1.1 7.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +344 / -469 → +330 / -425 ↓
3%TICKETS97%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +11 / -11 → +10.5 / -10.5 ↓
63%TICKETS37%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: 60 → 57.5 ↓
65%TICKETS35%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCLA Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 21.2 ATS +/-: +16.8
ORE
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: -5.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCLA Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 21.2 ATS +/-: +16.8
ORE
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: -5.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UCLA
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.3
ORE
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORE
UCLA
ORE
UCLA
ML
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
ATS
20% 1-4
25% 1-3-1
40% 2-3
0% 0-4-1
TTL
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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