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TEXAS A&M

TEXAS A&MTA&M

3-3  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 12:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI

MISSOURIMIZ

5-1  |  Home

27
Key Game
David Olano
KEY GAME

David Olano

#24 | Place kicker
@
Brunno Reus
KEY GAME

Brunno Reus

#40 | Place kicker
Player
David Olano None-None
Brunno Reus None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXAS A&M
61%
📊
MISSOURI
39%
▲ Edge: +22.30% (TA&M)
TEXAS A&M 39% Book Odds: +160
MISSOURI 66% Book Odds: -192
Book Implied: 38.50% / 65.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.0
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 (Over)
Over 50.5 57%
Under 50.5 43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.4
TEXAS A&M
Book Spread
+4
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.4 points (Texas A&M)
Texas A&MTA&M (+4) 0 MissouriMIZ (-4)
Texas A&M Aggies (+4) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texas A&M Cover

62.3%

Missouri Cover

37.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TA&M -4.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TA&M)

TA&M By 1-6 points

16.9%

TA&M By 7-13 points

18.3%

MIZ By 1-6 points

14.5%

MIZ By 7-13 points

11.8%

AI Model Projected Score
29.2
TEXAS A&M
Book Implied: 23.20
24.8
MISSOURI
Book Implied: 27.20
Simulated Score
30
TEXAS A&M
Book Implied: 23.20
29
MISSOURI
Book Implied: 27.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texas A&M Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Sim Texas A&M Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Texas A&M (+4) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.4
A
Sim Texas A&M (+4) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 54.0
C
Sim o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 59.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 TA&M @ MIZ 6 - 27
Nov 8, 2025 TA&M @ MIZ 38 - 17
Oct 5, 2024 MIZ @ TA&M 10 - 41
Oct 16, 2021 TA&M @ MIZ 35 - 14
Nov 15, 2014 MIZ @ TA&M 34 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +71.9% more
Texas A&M: 1.2 vs Missouri: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +25.2% more
Missouri: 438.6 vs Texas A&M: 350.4
First Downs (L5) +8.8% more
Missouri: 21.8 vs Texas A&M: 20.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TA&M Score 29.2 6
MIZ Score 24.8 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.8 / 20.0 20.0 / 10.0
Rushing Yards 178.3 / 169.5 252.0 / 29.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.28
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 438.6 / 350.4 399.0 / 216.0
Turnovers 0.3 / 1.2 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +120 / -142 → +160 / -192 ↑
15%TICKETS85%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3 / -3 → +4 / -4 ↑
39%TICKETS61%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 50.5
66%TICKETS34%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TA&M
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.4 ATS +/-: -3.4
MIZ Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TA&M Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.4 ATS +/-: -3.4
MIZ
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
TA&M
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -4.5
MIZ
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIZ
TA&M
MIZ
TA&M
ML
71% 5-2
62% 5-3
71% 5-2
75% 6-2
ATS
43% 3-4
50% 4-4
57% 4-3
38% 3-5
TTL
14% 1-6
25% 2-6
29% 2-5
50% 4-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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