Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Kansas @ Utah KU @ UTAH

KANSAS

KANSASKU

2-3  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 8:00 PM ET
Rice-Eccles Stadium
View Odds Details →

UTAH

UTAHUTAH

5-0  |  Home

41
Key Game
Matthew Gill
KEY GAME

Matthew Gill

#99 | Punter
@
Orion Phillips
KEY GAME

Orion Phillips

#92 | Punter
Player
Matthew Gill None-None
Orion Phillips None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KANSAS
16%
📊
UTAH
84%
KANSAS 16% Book Odds: +517
UTAH 88% Book Odds: -709
Book Implied: 16.20% / 87.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.0
Projected
Book Total
50.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 (Over)
Over 50.0 63%
Under 50.0 37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.6
UTAH
Book Spread
-16
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Utah)
KansasKU (+16) 0 UtahUTAH (-16)
Utah Utes (-16) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kansas Cover

10.4%

Utah Cover

89.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UTAH -17.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)

KU By 1-6 points

5.5%

KU By 7-13 points

2.9%

UTAH By 1-6 points

10.3%

UTAH By 7-13 points

17.1%

AI Model Projected Score
19.2
KANSAS
Book Implied: 17
36.8
UTAH
Book Implied: 33
Simulated Score
26
KANSAS
Book Implied: 17
36
UTAH
Book Implied: 33
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Utah Win
84% Win Prob
A
Sim Utah Win
84% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Utah (-16) Win
Proj Spread: -17.6
D
Sim Kansas (+16) Loss
Proj Spread: +10.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o50.0 Win
Proj Total: 56.0
B
Sim o50.0 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 KU @ UTAH 24 - 41
Nov 28, 2025 UTAH @ KU 31 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +67.8% more
Kansas: 1.5 vs Utah: 0.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +20.0% more
Kansas: 278.1 vs Utah: 222.4
First Downs (L5) +10.1% more
Kansas: 26.6 vs Utah: 23.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KU Score 19.2 24
UTAH Score 36.8 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.9 / 26.6 31.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 222.4 / 278.1 287.0 / 58.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.65 / 0.35
Total Yards 470.1 / 502.2 545.0 / 391.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.5 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +487 / -740 → +517 / -709
1%TICKETS99%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +15 / -15 → +16 / -16 ↑
36%TICKETS64%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52 → 50 ↓
65%TICKETS35%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KU
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +1.4
UTAH Advantage
7-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 22.9 ATS +/-: +5.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KU
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +1.4
UTAH Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 22.9 ATS +/-: +5.5
⚖️ Over/Under
KU
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +2.2
UTAH
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: -1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
KU
UTAH
KU
ML
100% 7-0
71% 5-2
86% 6-1
71% 5-2
ATS
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
29% 2-5
14% 1-6
TTL
71% 5-2
71% 5-2
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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