Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Tennessee @ Arkansas TENN @ ARK

TENNESSEE

TENNESSEETENN

5-1  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 4:15 PM ET
Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARKANSAS

ARKANSASARK

2-4  |  Home

17
Key Game
Jackson Ross
KEY GAME

Jackson Ross

#98 | Punter
@
Gavin Rush
KEY GAME

Gavin Rush

#37 | Punter
Player
Jackson Ross None-None
Gavin Rush None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TENNESSEE
80%
📊
ARKANSAS
20%
▲ Edge: +0.90% (ARK)
TENNESSEE 85% Book Odds: -560
ARKANSAS 19% Book Odds: +427
Book Implied: 84.80% / 19%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
51.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 51.0 53%
Under 51.0 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.4
TENNESSEE
Book Spread
-13.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Tennessee)
TennesseeTENN (-13.5) 0 ArkansasARK (+13.5)
Tennessee Volunteers (-13.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tennessee Cover

84.8%

Arkansas Cover

15.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TENN -14.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TENN)

TENN By 1-6 points

12.6%

TENN By 7-13 points

18.8%

ARK By 1-6 points

7.6%

ARK By 7-13 points

4.5%

AI Model Projected Score
33.2
TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 32.20
18.8
ARKANSAS
Book Implied: 18.80
Simulated Score
35
TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 32.20
26
ARKANSAS
Book Implied: 18.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Tennessee Win
80% Win Prob
A
Sim Tennessee Win
81% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tennessee (-13.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.4
D
Sim Arkansas (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: +9.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o51.0 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
D
Sim o51.0 Loss
Proj Total: 61.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 TENN @ ARK 24 - 17
Oct 11, 2025 ARK @ TENN 31 - 34
Oct 5, 2024 TENN @ ARK 14 - 19
Nov 7, 2020 TENN @ ARK 13 - 24
Oct 3, 2015 ARK @ TENN 24 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +51.5% more
Tennessee: 208.5 vs Arkansas: 101.2
Total Yards (L5) +13.2% more
Tennessee: 369.4 vs Arkansas: 320.7
First Downs (L5) +11.9% more
Tennessee: 22.0 vs Arkansas: 19.3
Turnovers (L5) +11.3% more
Arkansas: 1.2 vs Tennessee: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TENN Score 33.2 24
ARK Score 18.8 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.3 / 22.0 15.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 101.2 / 208.5 133.0 / 167.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.18 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 320.7 / 369.4 288.0 / 414.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.1 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -580 / +405 → -560 / +427 ↓
99%TICKETS1%
99%MONEY1%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -13.5 / +13.5 → -13.5 / +13.5
74%TICKETS26%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50 → 51 ↑
46%TICKETS54%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TENN Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: +3.3
ARK
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TENN Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: +3.3
ARK
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
TENN
2-6-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -7.1
ARK
2-5-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -5.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARK
TENN
ARK
TENN
ML
86% 6-1
62% 5-3
71% 5-2
75% 6-2
ATS
57% 4-3
62% 5-3
57% 4-3
88% 7-1
TTL
43% 3-4
25% 2-6
29% 2-5
38% 3-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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