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USC

USCUSC

6-1  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 7:30 PM ET
Beaver Stadium
View Odds Details →

PENN STATE

PENN STATEPSU

3-3  |  Home

23
Key Game
Lachlan Carrigan
KEY GAME

Lachlan Carrigan

#35 | Punter
@
Ryan Barker
KEY GAME

Ryan Barker

#94 | Place kicker
Player
Lachlan Carrigan None-None
Ryan Barker None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
USC
59%
📊
PENN STATE
41%
▲ Edge: +5.80% (USC)
USC 54% Book Odds: -115
PENN STATE 51% Book Odds: -105
Book Implied: 53.50% / 51.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.0
Projected
Book Total
54.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 54.5 49%
Under 54.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
USC
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (USC)
USCUSC (-1.5) 0 Penn StatePSU (+1.5)
USC Trojans (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

USC Cover

61.2%

Penn State Cover

38.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around USC -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USC)

USC By 1-6 points

17.0%

USC By 7-13 points

18.0%

PSU By 1-6 points

14.7%

PSU By 7-13 points

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
29
USC
Book Implied: 28
25
PENN STATE
Book Implied: 26.50
Simulated Score
32
USC
Book Implied: 28
31
PENN STATE
Book Implied: 26.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI USC Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim USC Win
55% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI USC (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Sim Penn State (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u54.5 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
D
Sim o54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 63.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 USC @ PSU 31 - 23
Oct 12, 2024 PSU @ USC 33 - 30
Jan 2, 2017 USC @ PSU 52 - 49
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +17.0% more
USC: 23.6 vs Penn State: 19.6
Total Yards (L5) +15.8% more
USC: 426.9 vs Penn State: 359.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USC Score 29.0 31
PSU Score 25.0 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.6 / 23.6 18.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 138.4 / 139.1 68.0 / 129.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.17 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 359.7 / 426.9 357.0 / 430.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -108 / -108 → -115 / -105 ↓
66%TICKETS34%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1 / -1 → -1.5 / +1.5 ↓
71%TICKETS29%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56 → 54.5 ↓
58%TICKETS42%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USC Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: -7.0
PSU
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 9.9 ATS +/-: -3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USC
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: -7.0
PSU Advantage
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 9.9 ATS +/-: -3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
USC
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.0
PSU
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PSU
USC
PSU
USC
ML
71% 5-2
88% 7-1
57% 4-3
75% 6-2
ATS
43% 3-4
62% 5-3
29% 2-5
50% 4-4
TTL
71% 5-2
50% 4-4
43% 3-4
38% 3-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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