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LSU

LSULSU

4-2  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 7:00 PM ET
Kroger Field
View Odds Details →

KENTUCKY

KENTUCKYUK

5-1  |  Home

35
Key Game
Grant Chadwick
KEY GAME

Grant Chadwick

#90 | Punter
@
Wilson Berry
KEY GAME

Wilson Berry

#93 | Punter
Player
Grant Chadwick None-None
Wilson Berry None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LSU
60%
📊
KENTUCKY
40%
▲ Edge: +14% (UK)
LSU 78% Book Odds: -360
KENTUCKY 26% Book Odds: +285
Book Implied: 78.30% / 26%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.5
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 (Over)
Over 50.5 59%
Under 50.5 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.5
KENTUCKY
Book Spread
+9.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Kentucky)
LSULSU (-9.5) 0 KentuckyUK (+9.5)
Kentucky Wildcats (+9.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

LSU Cover

37.4%

Kentucky Cover

62.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UK +4.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UK)

LSU By 1-6 points

16.9%

LSU By 7-13 points

18.3%

UK By 1-6 points

14.4%

UK By 7-13 points

11.7%

AI Model Projected Score
29.5
LSU
Book Implied: 30
25
KENTUCKY
Book Implied: 20.50
Simulated Score
26
LSU
Book Implied: 30
29
KENTUCKY
Book Implied: 20.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI LSU Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Kentucky Win
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Kentucky (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.5
B
Sim Kentucky (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o50.5 Win
Proj Total: 54.5
B
Sim o50.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 LSU @ UK 34 - 35
Oct 9, 2021 LSU @ UK 21 - 42
Oct 18, 2014 UK @ LSU 3 - 41
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +24.0% more
LSU: 539.7 vs Kentucky: 410.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +23.2% more
LSU: 238.3 vs Kentucky: 182.9
Turnovers (L5) +22.1% more
LSU: 1.3 vs Kentucky: 1.0
First Downs (L5) +19.7% more
LSU: 27.4 vs Kentucky: 22.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LSU Score 29.5 34
UK Score 25.0 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.0 / 27.4 19.0 / 26.0
Rushing Yards 182.9 / 238.3 155.0 / 94.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.36 / 0.54
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 410.2 / 539.7 401.0 / 410.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.3 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -371 / +284 → -360 / +285
97%TICKETS3%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -9.5 / +9.5 → -9.5 / +9.5
61%TICKETS39%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: 55 → 50.5 ↓
73%TICKETS27%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LSU
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 24.6 ATS +/-: +4.9
UK Advantage
7-1-0 (87.5%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +7.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LSU
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 24.6 ATS +/-: +4.9
UK Advantage
7-1-0 (87.5%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +7.1
⚖️ Over/Under
LSU
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.6
UK
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +6.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UK
LSU
UK
LSU
ML
50% 4-4
75% 6-2
50% 4-4
88% 7-1
ATS
25% 2-6
50% 4-4
38% 3-5
62% 5-3
TTL
50% 4-4
50% 4-4
62% 5-3
12% 1-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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