Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt MISS @ VAN

OLE MISS

OLE MISSMISS

4-1  |  Road

52
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 3:30 PM ET
FirstBank Stadium
View Odds Details →

VANDERBILT

VANDERBILTVAN

3-3  |  Home

17
Key Game
Oscar Bird
KEY GAME

Oscar Bird

#33 | Punter
@
Tyler Ebel
KEY GAME

Tyler Ebel

#37 | Punter
Player
Oscar Bird None-None
Tyler Ebel None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OLE MISS
55%
📊
VANDERBILT
45%
▲ Edge: +18.70% (VAN)
OLE MISS 78% Book Odds: -355
VANDERBILT 26% Book Odds: +280
Book Implied: 78% / 26.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 55.5 49%
Under 55.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
VANDERBILT
Book Spread
+8.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 points (Vanderbilt)
Ole MissMISS (-8.5) 0 VanderbiltVAN (+8.5)
Vanderbilt Commodores (+8.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ole Miss Cover

44.3%

Vanderbilt Cover

55.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around VAN +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAN)

MISS By 1-6 points

16.9%

MISS By 7-13 points

16.8%

VAN By 1-6 points

15.7%

VAN By 7-13 points

13.8%

AI Model Projected Score
28.5
OLE MISS
Book Implied: 32
26.5
VANDERBILT
Book Implied: 23.50
Simulated Score
30
OLE MISS
Book Implied: 32
36
VANDERBILT
Book Implied: 23.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Ole Miss Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Vanderbilt Loss
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Vanderbilt (+8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +2.0
A
Sim Vanderbilt (+8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
D
Sim o55.5 Win
Proj Total: 66.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 MISS @ VAN 52 - 17
Oct 28, 2023 VAN @ MISS 7 - 33
Oct 8, 2022 MISS @ VAN 52 - 28
Nov 20, 2021 VAN @ MISS 17 - 31
Oct 31, 2020 MISS @ VAN 54 - 21
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +26.7% more
Ole Miss: 25.2 vs Vanderbilt: 18.5
Total Yards (L5) +20.9% more
Ole Miss: 446.7 vs Vanderbilt: 353.4
Turnovers (L5) +10.4% more
Ole Miss: 1.4 vs Vanderbilt: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MISS Score 28.5 52
VAN Score 26.5 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.5 / 25.2 19.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 119.4 / 124.1 103.0 / 196.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.53 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 353.4 / 446.7 343.0 / 409.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.4 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -410 / +320 → -355 / +280 ↑
99%TICKETS1%
99%MONEY1%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -10.5 / +10.5 → -8.5 / +8.5 ↑
47%TICKETS53%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: 57.5 → 55.5 ↓
72%TICKETS28%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MISS Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 13.7 ATS +/-: +4.2
VAN
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -7.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MISS Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 13.7 ATS +/-: +4.2
VAN
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -7.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MISS
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +4.0
VAN
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAN
MISS
VAN
MISS
ML
75% 6-2
71% 5-2
62% 5-3
86% 6-1
ATS
50% 4-4
43% 3-4
88% 7-1
43% 3-4
TTL
75% 6-2
29% 2-5
75% 6-2
57% 4-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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