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IOWA STATE

IOWA STATEISU

3-3  |  Road

10
FINAL
Fri, Oct 9 • 10:30 PM ET
LaVell Edwards Stadium
View Odds Details →

BYU

BYUBYU

5-0  |  Home

24
Key Game
Ethan Gurney
KEY GAME

Ethan Gurney

#95 | Punter
@
Fuller Shurtz
KEY GAME

Fuller Shurtz

#19 | Punter
Player
Ethan Gurney None-None
Fuller Shurtz None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
IOWA STATE
26%
📊
BYU
74%
▲ Edge: +4.70% (ISU)
IOWA STATE 22% Book Odds: +360
BYU 82% Book Odds: -469
Book Implied: 21.70% / 82.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
46.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +8.5 (Over)
Over 46.5 68%
Under 46.5 32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+11.0
IOWA STATE
Book Spread
+11.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Iowa State)
Iowa StateISU (+11.5) 0 BYUBYU (-11.5)
Iowa State Cyclones (+11.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Iowa State Cover

78.4%

BYU Cover

21.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ISU +11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ISU)

ISU By 1-6 points

10.0%

ISU By 7-13 points

6.6%

BYU By 1-6 points

14.7%

BYU By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
22
IOWA STATE
Book Implied: 17.50
33
BYU
Book Implied: 29
Simulated Score
26
IOWA STATE
Book Implied: 17.50
32
BYU
Book Implied: 29
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI BYU Win
74% Win Prob
A
Sim BYU Win
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Iowa State (+11.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +11.0
D
Sim Iowa State (+11.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +6.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
A
Sim o46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 9, 2026 ISU @ BYU 10 - 24
Oct 25, 2025 BYU @ ISU 41 - 27
Nov 11, 2023 ISU @ BYU 45 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +16.0% more
BYU: 0.5 vs Iowa State: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +29.8% more
Iowa State: 1.1 vs BYU: 0.8
First Downs (L5) +16.0% more
Iowa State: 23.0 vs BYU: 19.3
Total Yards (L5) +13.8% more
Iowa State: 432.9 vs BYU: 373.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ISU Score 22.0 10
BYU Score 33.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.3 / 23.0 18.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 201.0 / 214.3 177.0 / 102.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.15
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 373.3 / 432.9 506.0 / 200.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.1 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +455 / -625 → +360 / -469 ↓
3%TICKETS97%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +14.5 / -14.5 → +11.5 / -11.5 ↓
47%TICKETS53%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 46.5 ↓
86%TICKETS14%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ISU
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: +0.1
BYU Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 14.6 ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ISU
2-4-1 (33.3%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: +0.1
BYU Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 14.6 ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ISU
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: +1.9
BYU
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BYU
ISU
BYU
ISU
ML
83% 5-1
100% 7-0
57% 4-3
86% 6-1
ATS
50% 3-3
67% 4-2-1
57% 4-3
33% 2-4-1
TTL
33% 2-4
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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