Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Wyoming @ San José St WYO @ SJSU

WYOMING

WYOMINGWYO

3-3  |  Road

16
FINAL
Fri, Oct 9 • 9:00 PM ET
CEFCU Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAN JOSÉ STATE

SAN JOSÉ STSJSU

3-3  |  Home

13
Key Game
Bart Edmiston
KEY GAME

Bart Edmiston

#18 | Punter
@
Trent Carrizosa
KEY GAME

Trent Carrizosa

#49 | Punter
Player
Bart Edmiston None-None
Trent Carrizosa None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WYOMING
37%
📊
SAN JOSÉ ST
63%
WYOMING 39% Book Odds: +154
SAN JOSÉ ST 65% Book Odds: -185
Book Implied: 39.40% / 64.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.5
Projected
Book Total
42.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 (Over)
Over 42.5 63%
Under 42.5 37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.5
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Spread
-4.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (San José State)
WyomingWYO (+4.5) 0 San José StSJSU (-4.5)
San José State Spartans (-4.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wyoming Cover

34.7%

San José St Cover

65.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SJSU -5.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJSU)

WYO By 1-6 points

13.8%

WYO By 7-13 points

10.8%

SJSU By 1-6 points

16.8%

SJSU By 7-13 points

18.8%

AI Model Projected Score
21.5
WYOMING
Book Implied: 19
27
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Implied: 23.50
Simulated Score
17
WYOMING
Book Implied: 19
39
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Implied: 23.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI San José St Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Sim San José St Loss
99% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI San José St (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.5
D
Sim San José St (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -22.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o42.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.5
B
Sim o42.5 Loss
Proj Total: 56.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 9, 2026 WYO @ SJSU 16 - 13
Oct 11, 2025 SJSU @ WYO 28 - 35
Oct 19, 2024 WYO @ SJSU 14 - 24
Oct 1, 2022 SJSU @ WYO 33 - 16
Oct 30, 2021 WYO @ SJSU 21 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +52.4% more
San José State: 1.9 vs Wyoming: 1.2
Total Yards (L5) +33.6% more
San José State: 363.5 vs Wyoming: 272.2
First Downs (L5) +17.8% more
San José State: 17.6 vs Wyoming: 15.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +11.8% more
Wyoming: 138.1 vs San José State: 121.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WYO Score 21.5 16
SJSU Score 27.0 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.6 / 15.0 20.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 121.8 / 138.1 75.0 / 231.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.33 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.37 / 0.63
Total Yards 363.5 / 272.2 326.0 / 345.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 1.2 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +202 / -249 → +154 / -185 ↓
11%TICKETS89%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +6.5 / -6.5 → +4.5 / -4.5 ↓
31%TICKETS69%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: 44 → 42.5 ↓
75%TICKETS25%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WYO Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: -0.3
SJSU
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WYO
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: -0.3
SJSU
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
WYO
2-6-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.4
SJSU
1-7-0
O: 12.5% / U: 87.5% Total +/-: -8.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SJSU
WYO
SJSU
WYO
ML
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
50% 4-4
75% 6-2
ATS
12% 1-7
38% 3-5
38% 3-5
62% 5-3
TTL
25% 2-6
12% 1-7
25% 2-6
12% 1-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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