Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Iowa @ Washington IOWA @ WASH

IOWA

IOWAIOWA

5-1  |  Road

41
FINAL
Fri, Oct 9 • 9:00 PM ET
Husky Stadium
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

WASHINGTONWASH

3-3  |  Home

24
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Boston Everitt

#49 | Punter
@
Tyler Robles
KEY GAME

Tyler Robles

#95 | Place kicker
Player
Boston Everitt None-None
Tyler Robles None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
IOWA
51%
📊
WASHINGTON
49%
▲ Edge: +7% (IOWA)
IOWA 44% Book Odds: +130
WASHINGTON 61% Book Odds: -155
Book Implied: 43.50% / 60.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.0
Projected
Book Total
40.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 (Over)
Over 40.5 62%
Under 40.5 38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
IOWA
Book Spread
+3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Iowa)
IowaIOWA (+3) 0 WashingtonWASH (-3)
Iowa Hawkeyes (+3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Iowa Cover

52.8%

Washington Cover

47.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around IOWA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IOWA)

IOWA By 1-6 points

16.7%

IOWA By 7-13 points

16.1%

WASH By 1-6 points

16.1%

WASH By 7-13 points

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
23.5
IOWA
Book Implied: 18.80
22.5
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 21.80
Simulated Score
30
IOWA
Book Implied: 18.80
35
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 21.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Iowa Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Washington Loss
68% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Iowa (+3) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
B
Sim Washington (-3) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o40.5 Win
Proj Total: 46.0
B
Sim o40.5 Win
Proj Total: 65.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 9, 2026 IOWA @ WASH 41 - 24
Oct 12, 2024 WASH @ IOWA 16 - 40
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +23.2% more
Iowa: 142.0 vs Washington: 109.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +16.0% more
Iowa: 0.4 vs Washington: 0.3
Turnovers (L5) +22.0% more
Washington: 1.1 vs Iowa: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IOWA Score 23.5 41
WASH Score 22.5 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.7 / 18.7 24.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 109.1 / 142.0 -3.0 / 263.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.39 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 358.8 / 345.0 317.0 / 465.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -108 / -112 → +130 / -155 ↑
41%TICKETS59%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +3 / -3 ↑
71%TICKETS29%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: 41.5 → 40.5 ↓
79%TICKETS21%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IOWA Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 13.7 ATS +/-: +4.0
WASH
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: -8.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IOWA Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 13.7 ATS +/-: +4.0
WASH
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: -8.9
⚖️ Over/Under
IOWA
2-5-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -1.1
WASH
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WASH
IOWA
WASH
IOWA
ML
86% 6-1
71% 5-2
71% 5-2
71% 5-2
ATS
86% 6-1
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
TTL
86% 6-1
29% 2-5
57% 4-3
14% 1-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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