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FLORIDA STATE

FLORIDA STFSU

3-3  |  Road

20
FINAL
Fri, Oct 9 • 7:00 PM ET
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOUISVILLE

LOUISVILLELOU

3-3  |  Home

44
Key Game
Daniel Hughes
KEY GAME

Daniel Hughes

#36 | Punter
@
👤
KEY GAME

Niall Hayes

#91 | Punter
Player
Daniel Hughes None-None
Niall Hayes None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FLORIDA ST
35%
📊
LOUISVILLE
65%
FLORIDA ST 39% Book Odds: +160
LOUISVILLE 66% Book Odds: -192
Book Implied: 38.50% / 65.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.5
Projected
Book Total
60.5
Over / Under Line
Over 60.5 50%
Under 60.5 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.5
LOUISVILLE
Book Spread
-4
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Louisville)
Florida StFSU (+4) 0 LouisvilleLOU (-4)
Louisville Cardinals (-4) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Florida St Cover

32.1%

Louisville Cover

67.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LOU -6.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LOU)

FSU By 1-6 points

13.2%

FSU By 7-13 points

10.0%

LOU By 1-6 points

16.6%

LOU By 7-13 points

19.1%

AI Model Projected Score
27
FLORIDA STATE
Book Implied: 28.20
33.5
LOUISVILLE
Book Implied: 32.20
Simulated Score
26
FLORIDA STATE
Book Implied: 28.20
39
LOUISVILLE
Book Implied: 32.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Louisville Win
65% Win Prob
B
Sim Louisville Win
90% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Louisville (-4) Win
Proj Spread: -6.5
C
Sim Louisville (-4) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u60.5 Loss
Proj Total: 60.5
D
Sim o60.5 Win
Proj Total: 65.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 9, 2026 FSU @ LOU 20 - 44
Dec 2, 2023 LOU @ FSU 6 - 16
Sep 16, 2022 FSU @ LOU 35 - 31
Sep 25, 2021 LOU @ FSU 31 - 23
Oct 24, 2020 FSU @ LOU 16 - 48
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +10.7% more
Florida State: 1.5 vs Louisville: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FSU Score 27.0 20
LOU Score 33.5 44
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.8 / 21.3 21.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 194.2 / 201.9 397.0 / 153.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.44 / 0.41
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 456.5 / 429.8 537.0 / 362.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.5 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +245 / -305 → +160 / -192 ↓
21%TICKETS79%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +7.5 / -7.5 → +4 / -4 ↓
61%TICKETS39%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: 58.5 → 60.5 ↑
52%TICKETS48%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FSU
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 3.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
LOU Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 11.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FSU
3-3-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
LOU Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 11.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
FSU
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: +3.9
LOU
6-1-0
O: 85.7% / U: 14.3% Total +/-: +8.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LOU
FSU
LOU
FSU
ML
71% 5-2
86% 6-1
86% 6-1
86% 6-1
ATS
71% 5-2
71% 5-2
71% 5-2
100% 7-0
TTL
29% 2-5
71% 5-2
71% 5-2
86% 6-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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