Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / South Alabama @ Arkansas St USA @ ARST

SOUTH ALABAMA

SOUTH ALABAMAUSA

4-2  |  Road

56
FINAL
Thu, Oct 8 • 7:30 PM ET
Centennial Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARKANSAS STATE

ARKANSAS STARST

2-4  |  Home

49
Key Game
Aleksi Pulkkinen
KEY GAME

Aleksi Pulkkinen

#40 | Punter
@
Reed Linder
KEY GAME

Reed Linder

#84 | Wide Receiver
Player
Aleksi Pulkkinen None-None
Reed Linder None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SOUTH ALABAMA
41%
📊
ARKANSAS ST
59%
SOUTH ALABAMA 42% Book Odds: +136
ARKANSAS ST 62% Book Odds: -162
Book Implied: 42.40% / 61.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.5
Projected
Book Total
59.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +4.0 (Under)
Over 59.5 41%
Under 59.5 59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.5
ARKANSAS STATE
Book Spread
-3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Arkansas State)
South AlabamaUSA (+3) 0 Arkansas StARST (-3)
Arkansas State Red Wolves (-3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

South Alabama Cover

40.1%

Arkansas St Cover

59.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ARST -3.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARST)

USA By 1-6 points

15.0%

USA By 7-13 points

12.5%

ARST By 1-6 points

17.0%

ARST By 7-13 points

17.8%

AI Model Projected Score
26
SOUTH ALABAMA
Book Implied: 28.20
29.5
ARKANSAS STATE
Book Implied: 31.20
Simulated Score
28
SOUTH ALABAMA
Book Implied: 28.20
22
ARKANSAS STATE
Book Implied: 31.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Arkansas St Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Sim South Alabama Win
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Arkansas St (-3) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.5
D
Sim South Alabama (+3) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u59.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.5
B
Sim u59.5 Loss
Proj Total: 50.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 8, 2026 USA @ ARST 56 - 49
Oct 14, 2025 ARST @ USA 15 - 14
Oct 5, 2024 USA @ ARST 16 - 18
Nov 11, 2023 ARST @ USA 14 - 21
Oct 29, 2022 USA @ ARST 31 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +41.0% more
South Alabama: 203.6 vs Arkansas State: 120.2
Total Yards (L5) +27.0% more
South Alabama: 460.8 vs Arkansas State: 336.2
First Downs (L5) +14.4% more
South Alabama: 21.2 vs Arkansas State: 18.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USA Score 26.0 56
ARST Score 29.5 49
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.1 / 21.2 31.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 120.2 / 203.6 98.0 / 296.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.8 / 0.3
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 336.2 / 460.8 516.0 / 372.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 0.5 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -108 / -112 → +136 / -162 ↑
29%TICKETS71%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +3 / -3 ↑
63%TICKETS37%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56.5 → 59.5 ↑
47%TICKETS53%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +3.4
ARST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +3.4
ARST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
USA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.3
ARST
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -6.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARST
USA
ARST
USA
ML
60% 3-2
67% 4-2
100% 6-0
83% 5-1
ATS
80% 4-1
50% 3-3
67% 4-2
83% 5-1
TTL
20% 1-4
67% 4-2
33% 2-4
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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