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SOUTH FLORIDA

SOUTH FLORIDAUSF

4-2  |  Road

24
FINAL
Thu, Oct 8 • 7:30 PM ET
Alamodome
View Odds Details →

UTSA

UTSAUTSA

5-1  |  Home

31
Key Game
Luke Goater
KEY GAME

Luke Goater

#39 | Punter
@
Caile Hogan
KEY GAME

Caile Hogan

#30 | Punter
Player
Luke Goater None-None
Caile Hogan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SOUTH FLORIDA
69%
📊
UTSA
31%
▲ Edge: +34.80% (USF)
SOUTH FLORIDA 35% Book Odds: +190
UTSA 70% Book Odds: -230
Book Implied: 34.50% / 69.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.5
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
Over 50.5 48%
Under 50.5 52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.5
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Spread
+5.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (South Florida)
South FloridaUSF (+5.5) 0 UTSAUTSA (-5.5)
South Florida Bulls (+5.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

South Florida Cover

72.8%

UTSA Cover

27.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around USF -8.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USF)

USF By 1-6 points

15.9%

USF By 7-13 points

19.6%

UTSA By 1-6 points

11.8%

UTSA By 7-13 points

8.4%

AI Model Projected Score
29.5
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Implied: 22.50
21
UTSA
Book Implied: 28
Simulated Score
35
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Implied: 22.50
31
UTSA
Book Implied: 28
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI South Florida Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Sim South Florida Loss
66% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI South Florida (+5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.5
A
Sim South Florida (+5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 50.5
D
Sim o50.5 Win
Proj Total: 66.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 8, 2026 USF @ UTSA 24 - 31
Nov 6, 2025 UTSA @ USF 23 - 55
Nov 17, 2023 USF @ UTSA 21 - 49
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +25.4% more
South Florida: 1.2 vs UTSA: 0.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
South Florida: 0.5 vs UTSA: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USF Score 29.5 24
UTSA Score 21.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.4 / 20.2 25.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 171.4 / 160.3 277.0 / 111.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 378.8 / 356.6 486.0 / 288.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +215 / -265 → +190 / -230 ↓
6%TICKETS94%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +6.5 / -6.5 → +5.5 / -5.5 ↓
61%TICKETS39%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: 54.5 → 50.5 ↓
72%TICKETS28%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USF
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -2.3
UTSA
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 5.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USF
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -2.3
UTSA Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
USF
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -10.3
UTSA
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTSA
USF
UTSA
USF
ML
60% 3-2
67% 4-2
50% 3-3
67% 4-2
ATS
40% 2-3
33% 2-4
33% 2-4
33% 2-4
TTL
40% 2-3
33% 2-4
50% 3-3
33% 2-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
UTSA Silences Doubters with 31-24 Win Over USF After Hartline's …
yahoo 0 minutes ago
American Conference Week 6: A 100-Pound Rib Trophy, a Walk-On's …
yahoo 2 hours, 33 minutes ago
Thursday Night College Football: UTSA vs. South Florida Headline…
usatoday 14 hours, 46 minutes ago
Texas Opens SEC Play as 5.5-Point Favorite at Tennessee
yahoo 2 weeks, 3 days ago
Texas Longhorns Edge UTSA 30-6: Offense Sputters, Defense Shines…
yahoo 2 weeks, 4 days ago