Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Missouri St @ Western KY MOST @ WKU

MISSOURI STATE

MISSOURI STMOST

1-4  |  Road

13
FINAL
Thu, Oct 8 • 7:00 PM ET
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
View Odds Details →

WESTERN KENTUCKY

WESTERN KYWKU

2-4  |  Home

34
Key Game
Stewart McDonald
KEY GAME

Stewart McDonald

#25 | Punter
@
Jackson Smith
KEY GAME

Jackson Smith

#43 | Place kicker
Player
Stewart McDonald None-None
Jackson Smith None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MISSOURI ST
43%
📊
WESTERN KY
57%
▲ Edge: +7.60% (WKU)
MISSOURI ST 55% Book Odds: -122
WESTERN KY 50% Book Odds: +102
Book Implied: 55% / 49.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.0
Projected
Book Total
56.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 56.5 49%
Under 56.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Western Kentucky)
Missouri StMOST (-1.5) 0 Western KYWKU (+1.5)
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Missouri St Cover

41.5%

Western KY Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WKU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WKU)

MOST By 1-6 points

15.3%

MOST By 7-13 points

12.9%

WKU By 1-6 points

17.0%

WKU By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
26.5
MISSOURI STATE
Book Implied: 29
29.5
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Book Implied: 27.50
Simulated Score
28
MISSOURI STATE
Book Implied: 29
25
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Book Implied: 27.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Western KY Win
57% Win Prob
C
Sim Missouri St Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Western KY (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Sim Missouri St (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u56.5 Win
Proj Total: 56.0
D
Sim u56.5 Win
Proj Total: 53.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 8, 2026 MOST @ WKU 13 - 34
Sep 27, 2025 WKU @ MOST 27 - 22
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +34.5% more
Western Kentucky: 1.5 vs Missouri State: 1.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +16.5% more
Missouri State: 127.3 vs Western Kentucky: 106.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MOST Score 26.5 13
WKU Score 29.5 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.6 / 18.9 21.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 106.3 / 127.3 233.0 / 136.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.53 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 376.5 / 367.9 464.0 / 340.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.1 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -108 / -112 → -122 / +102 ↓
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5 ↓
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Total (O/U)
Open: 55.5 → 56.5 ↑
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MOST Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: +6.0
WKU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -19.8 ATS +/-: -10.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MOST Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: +6.0
WKU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -19.8 ATS +/-: -10.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MOST
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.0
WKU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WKU
MOST
WKU
MOST
ML
67% 4-2
80% 4-1
67% 4-2
80% 4-1
ATS
33% 2-4
60% 3-2
33% 2-4
40% 2-3
TTL
50% 3-3
40% 2-3
50% 3-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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