Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Jax State @ Kennesaw St JXST @ KENN

JACKSONVILLE STATE

JAX STATEJXST

4-2  |  Road

27
FINAL
Wed, Oct 7 • 7:00 PM ET
Walens Family Field at Fifth Third Stadium
View Odds Details →

KENNESAW STATE

KENNESAW STKENN

1-4  |  Home

26
Key Game
Conor Donaghy
KEY GAME

Conor Donaghy

#87 | Punter
@
Matt McKenzie
KEY GAME

Matt McKenzie

#34 | Punter
Player
Conor Donaghy None-None
Matt McKenzie None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAX STATE
31%
📊
KENNESAW ST
69%
▲ Edge: +24.50% (KENN)
JAX STATE 60% Book Odds: -148
KENNESAW ST 45% Book Odds: +124
Book Implied: 59.70% / 44.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.0
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 (Over)
Over 48.5 58%
Under 48.5 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.6
KENNESAW STATE
Book Spread
+3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.6 points (Kennesaw State)
Jax StateJXST (-3) 0 Kennesaw StKENN (+3)
Kennesaw State Owls (+3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jax State Cover

27.0%

Kennesaw St Cover

73.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KENN -8.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KENN)

JXST By 1-6 points

11.7%

JXST By 7-13 points

8.3%

KENN By 1-6 points

15.9%

KENN By 7-13 points

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
22.2
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Book Implied: 25.80
30.8
KENNESAW STATE
Book Implied: 22.80
Simulated Score
30
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Book Implied: 25.80
26
KENNESAW STATE
Book Implied: 22.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Kennesaw St Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Sim Jax State Win
66% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Kennesaw St (+3) Win
Proj Spread: -8.6
A
Sim Jax State (-3) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 53.0
C
Sim o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 56.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 7, 2026 JXST @ KENN 27 - 26
Dec 5, 2025 KENN @ JXST 19 - 15
Nov 15, 2025 KENN @ JXST 26 - 35
Oct 4, 2024 JXST @ KENN 63 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +27.8% more
Jacksonville State: 1.3 vs Kennesaw State: 1.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +19.2% more
Jacksonville State: 196.1 vs Kennesaw State: 158.4
Total Yards (L5) +18.0% more
Jacksonville State: 429.7 vs Kennesaw State: 352.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JXST Score 22.2 27
KENN Score 30.8 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.1 / 21.7 22.0 / 27.0
Rushing Yards 158.4 / 196.1 117.0 / 74.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.45 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 352.3 / 429.7 410.0 / 385.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.3 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -142 / +120 → -148 / +124 ↓
84%TICKETS16%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -2.5 / +2.5 → -3 / +3 ↓
58%TICKETS42%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: 48.5 → 48.5
65%TICKETS35%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JXST Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
KENN
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -0.8 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JXST
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
KENN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: -0.8 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
JXST
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +0.2
KENN
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KENN
JXST
KENN
JXST
ML
25% 1-3
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
100% 6-0
ATS
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
50% 3-3
TTL
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
67% 4-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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