Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Southern Miss @ Troy USM @ TROY

SOUTHERN MISS

SOUTHERN MISSUSM

1-4  |  Road

34
FINAL
Tue, Oct 6 • 8:00 PM ET
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
View Odds Details →

TROY

TROYTROY

3-2  |  Home

55
Key Game
JR Stegall
KEY GAME

JR Stegall

#90 | Defensive Lineman
@
Evan Crenshaw
KEY GAME

Evan Crenshaw

#28 | Punter
Player
JR Stegall None-None
Evan Crenshaw None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SOUTHERN MISS
36%
📊
TROY
64%
▲ Edge: +11.90% (USM)
SOUTHERN MISS 24% Book Odds: +320
TROY 80% Book Odds: -410
Book Implied: 23.80% / 80.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.4
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 (Over)
Over 51.5 50%
Under 51.5 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Spread
+9.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Southern Miss)
Southern MissUSM (+9.5) 0 TroyTROY (-9.5)
Southern Miss Golden Eagles (+9.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Southern Miss Cover

66.6%

Troy Cover

33.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USM +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USM)

USM By 1-6 points

13.5%

USM By 7-13 points

10.4%

TROY By 1-6 points

16.7%

TROY By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
23.2
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Implied: 21
29.2
TROY
Book Implied: 30.50
Simulated Score
28
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Implied: 21
24
TROY
Book Implied: 30.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Troy Win
64% Win Prob
B
Sim Southern Miss Loss
66% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Southern Miss (+9.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +6.0
B
Sim Southern Miss (+9.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o51.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.4
D
Sim u51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 6, 2026 USM @ TROY 34 - 55
Nov 29, 2025 TROY @ USM 28 - 18
Nov 30, 2024 USM @ TROY 20 - 52
Nov 25, 2023 TROY @ USM 35 - 17
Oct 8, 2022 USM @ TROY 10 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +58.7% more
Troy: 1.7 vs Southern Miss: 1.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +10.4% more
Troy: 140.5 vs Southern Miss: 127.3
Time of Possession (L5) +9.0% more
Troy: 0.6 vs Southern Miss: 0.5
Total Yards (L5) +8.4% more
Southern Miss: 385.3 vs Troy: 352.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USM Score 23.2 34
TROY Score 29.2 55
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.3 / 20.1 33.0 / 30.0
Rushing Yards 140.5 / 127.3 437.0 / 121.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.57 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.66 / 0.34
Total Yards 352.9 / 385.3 662.0 / 512.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.1 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +280 / -355 → +320 / -410 ↑
6%TICKETS94%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +9.5 / -9.5 → +9.5 / -9.5
49%TICKETS51%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: 48.5 → 51.5 ↑
73%TICKETS27%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USM
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
TROY Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USM
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
TROY
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
USM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.7
TROY
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TROY
USM
TROY
USM
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
ATS
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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