Home / Premier League Projections Premier League / Fulham vs Man Utd Fulham vs Man Utd

FULHAMFULHAM

2-3-4  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sun, Sep 20 • 11:30 AM ET
Craven Cottage

MAN UTDMAN UTD

1-4-4  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
FULHAM
18%
DRAW
21%
MAN UTD
61%
▲ Edge: +35.70% (Fulham)
27% Book Odds: +267
DRAW 26% Book Odds: +285
50% Book Odds: +102
Book Implied: 27.20% / 26% / 49.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
Over 3.0 57%
Under 3.0 43%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
MAN UTD
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Man Utd)
FulhamFulham (+0.5) 0 Man UtdMan Utd (-0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

42.7% / 57.3%

Shots (On Goal)

12(6) / 29(6)

Corners

3 / 13

Cards (Y/R)

3/0 - 0/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Manchester United -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Manchester United)

Fulham By 1 goal

11.1%

Fulham By 2+ goals

4.8%

Manchester United By 1 goal

26.1%

Manchester United By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
FULHAM
Book Implied: 1.20
2
MAN UTD
Book Implied: 1.80
Simulated Score
1
FULHAM
Book Implied: 1.20
3
MAN UTD
Book Implied: 1.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Manchester United Loss
37% Win Prob
D
Sim Manchester United Loss
83% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Manchester United (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Manchester United (-0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.0 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim o3.0 Loss
Proj Total: 4.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 Fulham vs Man Utd 1 - 1
Feb 1, 2026 Man Utd vs Fulham 3 - 2
Aug 24, 2025 Fulham vs Man Utd 1 - 1
Jan 26, 2025 Fulham vs Man Utd 0 - 1
Aug 16, 2024 Man Utd vs Fulham 1 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +62.5% more
Man Utd: 13.0 vs Fulham: 8.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +33.3% more
Fulham: 6.0 vs Man Utd: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Manchester United Score 2.0 1
Fulham Score 1.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 18.3% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 60.6%
Fulham (Home) vs Manchester United (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Fulham Share: 33.3% Manchester United Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Fulham
Manchester United
Fulham
Manchester United
ML
56% 5-4
33% 3-6
44% 4-5
22% 2-7
ATS
59% 5-3
75% 6-2-1
41% 3-5
25% 2-6-1
TTL
65% 5-3
59% 5-3
41% 3-5
41% 3-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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