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LEEDSLEEDS

1-1-0  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sun, Sep 20 • 9:00 AM ET
Elland Road

C PALACEC PALACE

0-0-2  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
LEEDS
61%
DRAW
21%
C PALACE
18%
▲ Edge: +26.90% (Crystal Palace)
58% Book Odds: -139
DRAW 25% Book Odds: +295
20% Book Odds: +410
Book Implied: 58.20% / 25.30% / 19.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 58%
Under 2.75 42%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
LEEDS
Book Goal Line
-0.75
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Leeds)
LeedsLeeds (-0.8) 0 C PalaceC Palace (+0.8)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

50.6% / 49.4%

Shots (On Goal)

13(2) / 12(4)

Corners

4 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Leeds United -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Leeds United)

Leeds United By 1 goal

26.1%

Leeds United By 2+ goals

36.9%

Crystal Palace By 1 goal

11.1%

Crystal Palace By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
LEEDS
Book Implied: 1.80
1
C PALACE
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
3
LEEDS
Book Implied: 1.80
0
C PALACE
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Leeds United Loss
54% Win Prob
B
Sim Leeds United Loss
94% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Leeds United (-0.75) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Leeds United (-0.75) Loss
Proj Goals: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
A
Sim o2.8 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 Leeds vs C Palace 0 - 0
Mar 15, 2026 C Palace vs Leeds 0 - 0
Apr 9, 2023 Leeds vs C Palace 1 - 5
Oct 9, 2022 C Palace vs Leeds 2 - 1
Apr 25, 2022 C Palace vs Leeds 0 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +200.0% more
Leeds: 2.0 vs C Palace: 0.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Leeds: 1.0 vs C Palace: 2.0
Wins (L5) +50.0% more
C Palace: 3.0 vs Leeds: 2.0
Goals Scored (L5) +18.2% more
C Palace: 13.0 vs Leeds: 11.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Crystal Palace Score 1.0 0
Leeds United Score 2.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Leeds United (Home) vs Crystal Palace (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Leeds United Share: 66.7% Crystal Palace Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Leeds United
Crystal Palace
Leeds United
Crystal Palace
ML
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
ATS
0% 0-4-1
80% 4-1
25% 1-3-1
40% 2-3
TTL
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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