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BOURNEMOUTHBOURNEMOUTH

0-3-3  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sun, Sep 20 • 9:00 AM ET
Vitality Stadium

LIVERPOOLLIVERPOOL

2-3-1  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
BOURNEMOUTH
18%
DRAW
21%
LIVERPOOL
61%
▲ Edge: +28.40% (AFC Bournemouth)
32% Book Odds: +209
DRAW 27% Book Odds: +275
44% Book Odds: +128
Book Implied: 32.40% / 26.70% / 43.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
Over 3.0 60%
Under 3.0 40%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
LIVERPOOL
Book Goal Line
-0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 goals (Liverpool)
BournemouthBournemouth (+0.2) 0 LiverpoolLiverpool (-0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

46.2% / 53.8%

Shots (On Goal)

9(2) / 12(3)

Corners

3 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Liverpool -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Liverpool)

AFC Bournemouth By 1 goal

11.1%

AFC Bournemouth By 2+ goals

4.8%

Liverpool By 1 goal

26.1%

Liverpool By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
BOURNEMOUTH
Book Implied: 1.40
2
LIVERPOOL
Book Implied: 1.60
Simulated Score
1
BOURNEMOUTH
Book Implied: 1.40
2
LIVERPOOL
Book Implied: 1.60
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Liverpool Win
39% Win Prob
D
Sim Liverpool Win
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Liverpool (-0.25) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Liverpool (-0.25) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.0 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim u3.0 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 Bournemouth vs Liverpool 0 - 1
Jan 24, 2026 Bournemouth vs Liverpool 3 - 2
Aug 15, 2025 Liverpool vs Bournemouth 4 - 2
Feb 1, 2025 Bournemouth vs Liverpool 0 - 2
Sep 21, 2024 Liverpool vs Bournemouth 3 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +50.0% more
Liverpool: 4.0 vs Bournemouth: 6.0
Wins (L5) +50.0% more
Liverpool: 3.0 vs Bournemouth: 2.0
Draws (L5) +50.0% more
Bournemouth: 3.0 vs Liverpool: 2.0
Goals Scored (L5) +22.2% more
Bournemouth: 11.0 vs Liverpool: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Liverpool Score 2.0 1
AFC Bournemouth Score 1.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 18.3% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 60.6%
AFC Bournemouth (Home) vs Liverpool (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
AFC Bournemouth Share: 33.3% Liverpool Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AFC Bournemouth
Liverpool
AFC Bournemouth
Liverpool
ML
83% 5-1
50% 3-3
33% 2-4
50% 3-3
ATS
70% 3-1-1
100% 6-0
50% 2-2-1
50% 3-3
TTL
60% 3-2-1
40% 2-3
60% 3-2-1
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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