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TIJUANATIJUANA

4-3-3  |  Home

2
FINAL
Fri, Sep 25 • 11:00 PM ET
Estadio Caliente

ATLASATLAS

5-3-3  |  Away

3
AI Model Win Probability
TIJUANA
61%
DRAW
21%
ATLAS
18%
▲ Edge: +35% (Atlas)
46% Book Odds: +118
DRAW 29% Book Odds: +245
29% Book Odds: +251
Book Implied: 45.90% / 29% / 28.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5 58%
Under 2.5 42%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
TIJUANA
Book Goal Line
-0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 goals (Tijuana)
TijuanaTijuana (-0.2) 0 AtlasAtlas (+0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

29.6% / 70.4%

Shots (On Goal)

10(5) / 21(7)

Corners

5 / 11

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Tijuana -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Tijuana)

Tijuana By 1 goal

26.1%

Tijuana By 2+ goals

36.9%

Atlas By 1 goal

11.1%

Atlas By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
TIJUANA
Book Implied: 1.40
1
ATLAS
Book Implied: 1.10
Simulated Score
1
TIJUANA
Book Implied: 1.40
2
ATLAS
Book Implied: 1.10
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tijuana Loss
36% Win Prob
D
Sim Atlas Win
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tijuana (-0.25) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Atlas (+0.25) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.5 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o2.5 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 25, 2026 Tijuana vs Atlas 2 - 3
Mar 7, 2026 Atlas vs Tijuana 1 - 2
Mar 4, 2026 Atlas vs Tijuana 2 - 1
Nov 7, 2025 Tijuana vs Atlas 2 - 0
Oct 25, 2025 Tijuana vs Atlas 4 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Tijuana: 1.0 vs Atlas: 0.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +25.0% more
Tijuana: 8.0 vs Atlas: 10.0
Goals Scored (L5) +20.0% more
Tijuana: 6.0 vs Atlas: 5.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Atlas: 2.0 vs Tijuana: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Atlas Score 1.0 3
Tijuana Score 2.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Tijuana (Home) vs Atlas (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Tijuana Share: 66.7% Atlas Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Tijuana
Atlas
Tijuana
Atlas
ML
20% 2-8
64% 7-4
50% 5-5
36% 4-7
ATS
75% 6-2-2
52% 5-5
50% 4-4-2
38% 4-6
TTL
60% 6-4
82% 9-2
40% 4-6
45% 5-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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