Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Atlante vs Monterrey Atlante vs Monterrey

ATLANTEATLANTE

2-5-4  |  Home

4
FINAL
Fri, Sep 25 • 9:00 PM ET
Estadio Banorte

MONTERREYMONTERREY

4-2-4  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
ATLANTE
40%
DRAW
21%
MONTERREY
40%
▲ Edge: +7.30% (Monterrey)
33% Book Odds: +204
DRAW 28% Book Odds: +261
43% Book Odds: +134
Book Implied: 32.90% / 27.70% / 42.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 73%
Under 2.75 27%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
ATLANTE
Book Goal Line
+0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Atlante)
AtlanteAtlante (+0.2) 0 MonterreyMonterrey (-0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

40.5% / 59.5%

Shots (On Goal)

14(7) / 17(7)

Corners

2 / 6

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Atlante 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Atlante)

Atlante By 1 goal

21.1%

Atlante By 2+ goals

15.9%

Monterrey By 1 goal

21.1%

Monterrey By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
2
ATLANTE
Book Implied: 1.20
2
MONTERREY
Book Implied: 1.50
Simulated Score
1
ATLANTE
Book Implied: 1.20
2
MONTERREY
Book Implied: 1.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Loss
46% Win Prob
A
Sim Monterrey Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Atlante (+0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Sim Monterrey (-0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75 Win
Proj Total: 4.0
B
Sim o2.8 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 25, 2026 Atlante vs Monterrey 4 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Monterrey: 1.0 vs Atlante: 0.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +50.0% more
Monterrey: 4.0 vs Atlante: 6.0
Draws (L5) +50.0% more
Atlante: 3.0 vs Monterrey: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Monterrey Score 2.0 2
Atlante Score 2.0 4
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 39.6% Draw: 20.7% Away Win: 39.6%
Atlante (Home) vs Monterrey (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 76.2% Under 2.5: 23.8%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 4.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Atlante Share: 50.0% Monterrey Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Atlante
Monterrey
Atlante
Monterrey
ML
55% 6-5
40% 4-6
9% 1-10
40% 4-6
ATS
53% 5-4-1
47% 4-5
24% 2-6-2
40% 4-6
TTL
18% 2-9
50% 5-5
64% 7-4
50% 5-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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