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TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

80-82  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

77-85  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
MacKenzie Gore
STARTING PITCHER

MacKenzie Gore

#1 | Starting Pitcher
@
Dean Kremer
STARTING PITCHER

Dean Kremer

#13 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
MacKenzie Gore 8-11 4.59 1.34 170.2 174
Dean Kremer 4-5 4.97 1.20 83.1 82
8-11 W-L 4-5
4.59 Ldr ERA 4.97
1.34 WHIP Ldr 1.20
170.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 83.1
174 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 82
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
46%
📊
TWINS
54%
▲ Edge: +3.20% (MIN)
RANGERS 54% Book Odds: -117
TWINS 51% Book Odds: -103
Book Implied: 53.90% / 50.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0 60%
Under 8.0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Minnesota)
RangersTEX (-1.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+1.5)
Minnesota Twins (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rangers Cover

36.3%

Twins Cover

63.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

TEX By 1-2 runs

15.3%

TEX By 3-4 runs

9.5%

MIN By 1-2 runs

19.7%

MIN By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
TEXAS
Book Implied: 4.80
5.2
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 4.80
4
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Twins Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Rangers Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Twins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim Twins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 TEX @ MIN 4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026 TEX @ MIN 6 - 2
Sep 25, 2026 TEX @ MIN 2 - 10
Jun 18, 2026 MIN @ TEX 9 - 3
Jun 16, 2026 MIN @ TEX 12 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas TEX
vs
Minnesota MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.317
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.713
OPS
▲ .720
183
Home Runs
▲ 187
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +28.0% more
Minnesota: 0.5 vs Texas: 0.2
Runs per Game (Season) +9.9% more
Minnesota: 4.6 vs Texas: 4.2
Slugging Pct (Season) +0.7%
Minnesota: 40.3% vs Texas: 39.6%
OPS (Season) +0.7%
Minnesota: 72.0% vs Texas: 71.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEX Score 3.8 4
MIN Score 5.2 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.7 / 8.3 10.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.1 2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 9.8 6.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 14.2 / 13.4 17.0 / 15.0
Walks 2.2 / 2.4 5.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -130 / +108 → -117 / -103 ↑
68%TICKETS32%
45%MONEY55%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
71%TICKETS29%
87%MONEY13%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8
75%TICKETS25%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
TEX
MIN
TEX
ML
52% 84-78
53% 86-76
50% 80-81
57% 91-70
ATS
59% 95-67
57% 92-70
59% 95-66
61% 98-63
TTL
51% 78-75-9
53% 78-70-14
53% 80-72-9
55% 81-66-14
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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