Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rockies @ White Sox COL @ CHW

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

58-104  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Rate Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

84-78  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Kyle Freeland
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Freeland

#21 | Starting Pitcher
@
Anthony Kay
STARTING PITCHER

Anthony Kay

#18 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kyle Freeland 4-11 6.58 1.52 131.1 106
Anthony Kay 9-9 4.53 1.37 153.0 125
4-11 W-L 9-9
6.58 ERA Ldr 4.53
1.52 WHIP Ldr 1.37
131.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 153.0
106 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 125
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
32%
📊
WHITE SOX
68%
▲ Edge: +6.40% (CHW)
ROCKIES 43% Book Odds: +135
WHITE SOX 62% Book Odds: -163
Book Implied: 42.60% / 62%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
Over 8.5 49%
Under 8.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
COLORADO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
RockiesCOL (+1.5) 0 White SoxCHW (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

64.6%

White Sox Cover

35.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around COL +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

COL By 1-2 runs

15.0%

COL By 3-4 runs

9.2%

CHW By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CHW By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.50
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
4
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.50
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI White Sox Win
68% Win Prob
A
Sim White Sox Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rockies (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim Rockies (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 COL @ CHW 2 - 4
Sep 26, 2026 COL @ CHW 9 - 6
Sep 25, 2026 COL @ CHW 1 - 6
Jul 6, 2025 CHW @ COL 4 - 6
Jul 5, 2025 CHW @ COL 10 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
Chicago CHW
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.64
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.254
Avg (AVG)
▲ .324
.322
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .415
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.412
.739
OPS
▲ .826
180 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +96.3% more
Chicago: 3.7 vs Colorado: 1.9
Runs per Game (Season) +29.3% more
Chicago: 6.0 vs Colorado: 4.6
On-Base Pct (Season) +9.3%
Chicago: 41.5% vs Colorado: 32.2%
OPS (Season) +8.7%
Chicago: 82.6% vs Colorado: 73.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 3.5 2
CHW Score 5.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.4 / 9.1 8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 2.0 / 1.9 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.8 / 8.7 6.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 16.4 / 17.0 17.0 / 9.0
Walks 3.7 / 1.9 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +193 / -238 → +135 / -163 ↓
9%TICKETS91%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
12%TICKETS88%
9%MONEY91%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8.5 ↑
92%TICKETS8%
95%MONEY5%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
88-81-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
CHW
97-70-2
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
COL
CHW
COL
ML
49% 82-87
60% 97-64
56% 94-75
55% 88-73
ATS
59% 100-69
60% 97-64
55% 93-76
52% 83-78
TTL
58% 97-70-2
60% 93-62-6
51% 85-82-2
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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