CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
85-77 | Road
2
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
69-93 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Parker Messick
#77 | SP@
STARTING PITCHER
Daniel Lynch IV
#41 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Messick | 12-9 | 2.55 | 1.04 | 183.1 | 191 |
| Daniel Lynch IV | 6-6 | 4.13 | 1.14 | 80.2 | 54 |
12-9
W-L
6-6
2.55 Ldr
ERA
4.13
1.04 Ldr
WHIP
1.14
183.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
80.2
191 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
54
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
57%
ROYALS
43%
▲ Edge: +5% (CLE)
GUARDIANS
52%
Book Odds: -109
ROYALS
53%
Book Odds: -111
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0
60%
Under 8.0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around KC +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CLE By 3-4 runs
17.2%
KC By 1-2 runs
15.3%
KC By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
5.2
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.80
Kansas City
3.8
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.80
Kansas City
4
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Guardians
Loss
57% Win Prob
C
Sim
Royals
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Royals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Royals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
CLE @ KC
2 - 3
Sep 26, 2026
CLE @ KC
11 - 5
Sep 25, 2026
CLE @ KC
12 - 9
Aug 30, 2026
KC @ CLE
1 - 11
Aug 29, 2026
KC @ CLE
8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Kansas City
KC
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
4.26
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.316
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.696
OPS
▲
.718
162
Home Runs
▲
170
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+57.1% more
Cleveland: 5.3
vs
Kansas City: 2.3
Home Runs (L5)
+55.5% more
Cleveland: 2.5
vs
Kansas City: 1.1
Total Bases (L5)
+16.8% more
Cleveland: 20.4
vs
Kansas City: 17.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+30.5% more
Kansas City: 7.4
vs
Cleveland: 5.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
5.2
2
KC Score
3.8
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.3 / 1.1
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.4 / 9.8
9.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 2.5
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.4 / 5.7
7.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
17.0 / 20.4
16.0 / 15.0
Walks
2.3 / 5.3
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -131 / +109
→
-109 / -111
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
CLE
KC
CLE
ML
55%
89-72
54%
87-74
56%
90-70
49%
80-82
ATS
57%
91-70
58%
93-68
58%
93-67
59%
95-67
TTL
58%
90-64-7
55%
88-71-2
54%
83-70-7
43%
69-90-2
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