Home / MLB Projections MLB / Pirates @ Tigers PIT @ DET

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

82-80  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

76-86  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Jared Jones
STARTING PITCHER

Jared Jones

#17 | Starting Pitcher
@
River Ryan
STARTING PITCHER

River Ryan

#77 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jared Jones 5-6 3.87 1.12 97.2 118
River Ryan 0-0 0.00 1.00 3.0 3
5-6 W-L 0-0
3.87 ERA Ldr 0.00
1.12 WHIP Ldr 1.00
97.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 3.0
118 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
38%
📊
TIGERS
62%
▲ Edge: +7% (DET)
PIRATES 50% Book Odds: +101
TIGERS 55% Book Odds: -122
Book Implied: 49.80% / 55%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0 65%
Under 8.0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
DETROIT
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Detroit)
PiratesPIT (-1.5) 0 TigersDET (+1.5)
Detroit Tigers (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

36.3%

Tigers Cover

63.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

PIT By 1-2 runs

15.3%

PIT By 3-4 runs

9.5%

DET By 1-2 runs

19.7%

DET By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 4.80
5.2
DETROIT
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
4
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 4.80
6
DETROIT
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Tigers Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Tigers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim Tigers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 PIT @ DET 4 - 2
Sep 26, 2026 PIT @ DET 3 - 4
Sep 25, 2026 PIT @ DET 7 - 8
Aug 19, 2026 DET @ PIT 3 - 4
Aug 18, 2026 DET @ PIT 1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh PIT
vs
Detroit DET
162
Games Played
162
4.73 ▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.253 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.330 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.320
.404 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.734 ▲
OPS
.720
186 ▲
Home Runs
181
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +78.2% more
Detroit: 4.9 vs Pittsburgh: 2.8
Hits (L5) +20.5% more
Detroit: 9.4 vs Pittsburgh: 7.8
Total Bases (L5) +12.3% more
Detroit: 15.3 vs Pittsburgh: 13.6
Errors (L5) +48.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.6 vs Detroit: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 3.8 4
DET Score 5.2 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.4 / 7.8 3.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.2 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 9.2 13.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 15.3 / 13.6 9.0 / 11.0
Walks 4.9 / 2.8 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +102 / -123 → +101 / -122
58%TICKETS42%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5 ↓
59%TICKETS41%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8 ↓
91%TICKETS9%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
PIT
DET
PIT
ML
54% 86-73
52% 82-77
54% 87-73
52% 85-78
ATS
64% 101-58
54% 86-73
57% 91-69
50% 81-82
TTL
46% 69-81-9
47% 72-81-6
46% 69-81-10
50% 79-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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