ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
94-68 | Road
3
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
80-82 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
JR Ritchie
#60 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Janson Junk
#26 | SP| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JR Ritchie | 1-4 | 4.79 | 1.46 | 67.2 | 66 |
| Janson Junk | 6-9 | 4.31 | 1.31 | 119.0 | 84 |
1-4
W-L
6-9
4.79
ERA
Ldr 4.31
1.46
WHIP
Ldr 1.31
67.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 119.0
66
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 84
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
46%
MARLINS
54%
BRAVES
49%
Book Odds: +105
MARLINS
56%
Book Odds: -126
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0
61%
Under 8.0
39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
ATLANTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-2 runs
15.3%
ATL By 3-4 runs
9.5%
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIA By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
3.8
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 3.20
Miami
5.2
MIAMI
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 3.20
Miami
5
MIAMI
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Marlins
Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Braves (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
B
Sim
Braves (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.0
Push
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o8.0
Push
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
ATL @ MIA
3 - 5
Sep 26, 2026
ATL @ MIA
8 - 3
Sep 25, 2026
ATL @ MIA
0 - 3
Aug 6, 2026
MIA @ ATL
3 - 11
Aug 5, 2026
MIA @ ATL
1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.58
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.309
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.409
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.718
OPS
▲
.727
204
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+70.0% more
Miami: 0.7
vs
Atlanta: 0.0
Hits (L5)
+9.6% more
Miami: 8.4
vs
Atlanta: 7.6
On-Base Pct (Season)
+1.7%
Miami: 32.6%
vs
Atlanta: 30.9%
OPS (Season)
+0.9%
Miami: 72.7%
vs
Atlanta: 71.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
3.8
3
MIA Score
5.2
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.0
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.4 / 7.6
8.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.2
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
5.8 / 8.0
7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
13.3 / 13.3
16.0 / 8.0
Walks
2.6 / 2.6
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -131 / +109
→
+105 / -126
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
94-68-0
(58.0%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
74-79-8
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: +0.1
MIA
82-75-4
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
ATL
MIA
ATL
ML
48%
78-84
46%
73-87
55%
88-72
53%
86-75
ATS
56%
91-71
57%
92-68
54%
86-74
52%
84-77
TTL
56%
88-69-5
54%
81-70-9
53%
82-73-5
49%
74-77-9
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