Home / MLB Projections MLB / Reds @ Blue Jays CIN @ TOR

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

75-87  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:07 PM ET
Rogers Centre
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

79-83  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Brandon Williamson
STARTING PITCHER

Brandon Williamson

#55 | SP
@
Max Scherzer
STARTING PITCHER

Max Scherzer

#31 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brandon Williamson 5-4 4.89 1.41 49.2 33
Max Scherzer 3-9 6.14 1.36 77.2 61
5-4 W-L 3-9
4.89 Ldr ERA 6.14
1.41 WHIP Ldr 1.36
49.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 77.2
33 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 61
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
34%
📊
BLUE JAYS
66%
▲ Edge: +2.80% (TOR)
REDS 42% Book Odds: +141
BLUE JAYS 63% Book Odds: -171
Book Implied: 41.50% / 63.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5 55%
Under 8.5 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Cincinnati)
RedsCIN (+1.5) 0 Blue JaysTOR (-1.5)
Cincinnati Reds (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

63.7%

Blue Jays Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

CIN By 1-2 runs

15.3%

CIN By 3-4 runs

9.5%

TOR By 1-2 runs

19.7%

TOR By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.50
5.2
TORONTO
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.50
4
TORONTO
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Blue Jays Win
66% Win Prob
A
Sim Reds Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim Reds (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 CIN @ TOR 1 - 5
Sep 26, 2026 CIN @ TOR 5 - 1
Sep 25, 2026 CIN @ TOR 5 - 6
Sep 3, 2025 TOR @ CIN 13 - 9
Sep 2, 2025 TOR @ CIN 12 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
Toronto TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.11 ▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .310
.394 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.699 ▲
OPS
.692
213 ▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +52.0% more
Toronto: 0.9 vs Cincinnati: 0.3
Walks (L5) +11.6% more
Toronto: 3.6 vs Cincinnati: 3.2
Batting Avg (Season) +1.8%
Toronto: 24.7% vs Cincinnati: 22.9%
On-Base Pct (Season) +0.5%
Toronto: 31.0% vs Cincinnati: 30.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 3.8 1
TOR Score 5.2 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.0 / 7.6 5.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.2 / 1.4 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 5.9 / 10.7 9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 9.8 / 13.6 12.0 / 9.0
Walks 3.6 / 3.2 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +136 / -164 → +141 / -171 ↑
26%TICKETS74%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
40%TICKETS60%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8.5 ↑
88%TICKETS12%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
TOR Advantage
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-73-4
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.5
TOR
81-75-5
O: 51.9% / U: 48.1% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
CIN
TOR
CIN
ML
46% 74-87
55% 88-71
50% 80-80
49% 79-81
ATS
56% 90-71
54% 86-73
49% 79-81
50% 80-80
TTL
51% 80-76-5
53% 81-73-5
45% 70-85-5
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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