Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Valencia vs Real Sociedad Valencia vs Real Sociedad

VALENCIAVALENCIA

0-1-2  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sun, Sep 20 • 3:00 PM ET
Mestalla Stadium

REAL SOCIEDADREAL SOCIEDAD

1-0-2  |  Away

3
AI Model Win Probability
VALENCIA
35%
DRAW
31%
REAL SOCIEDAD
35%
▲ Edge: +10% (Real Sociedad)
35% Book Odds: +190
DRAW --
40% Book Odds: +150
Book Implied: 34.50% / % / 40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 2.5 42%
Under 2.5 58%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
REAL SOCIEDAD
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
ValenciaValencia (+0.5) 0 Real SociedadReal Sociedad (-0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

54.1% / 45.9%

Shots (On Goal)

22(5) / 21(6)

Corners

7 / 5

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 1/1

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Real Sociedad 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Real Sociedad)

Valencia By 1 goal

21.1%

Valencia By 2+ goals

15.9%

Real Sociedad By 1 goal

21.1%

Real Sociedad By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
VALENCIA
Book Implied: 1
1
REAL SOCIEDAD
Book Implied: 1.50
Simulated Score
1
VALENCIA
Book Implied: 1
1
REAL SOCIEDAD
Book Implied: 1.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Draw Loss
35% Win Prob
C
Sim Draw Loss
29% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Real Sociedad (-0) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Sim Real Sociedad (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
C
Sim u2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 Valencia vs Real Sociedad 2 - 3
Aug 16, 2025 Valencia vs Real Sociedad 1 - 1
Jan 19, 2025 Valencia vs Real Sociedad 1 - 0
Sep 28, 2024 Real Sociedad vs Valencia 3 - 0
May 16, 2024 Real Sociedad vs Valencia 1 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +200.0% more
Real Sociedad: 6.0 vs Valencia: 2.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Real Sociedad: 2.0 vs Valencia: 1.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Real Sociedad: 1.0 vs Valencia: 0.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Real Sociedad: 2.0 vs Valencia: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Real Sociedad Score 1.0 3
Valencia Score 1.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Valencia (Home) vs Real Sociedad (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Valencia Share: 50.0% Real Sociedad Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Valencia
Real Sociedad
Valencia
Real Sociedad
ML
57% 4-3
14% 1-6
29% 2-5
57% 4-3
ATS
77% 5-1
43% 3-4
54% 3-3
71% 5-2
TTL
29% 2-5
29% 2-5
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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