ATLÉTICOATLÉTICO
2-1-0 | Home
2
REAL MADRIDREAL MADRID
3-0-0 | Away
1
AI Model Win Probability
ATLÉTICO
61%
DRAW
21%
REAL MADRID
18%
▲ Edge: +6.30% (Real Madrid)
28%
Book Odds: +255
DRAW
--
50%
Book Odds: +100
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 3.5
30%
Under 3.5
70%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
ATLÉTICO
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 goals (Atlético)
Soccer Match Statistics
Possession
60.9% / 39.1%
Shots (On Goal)
18(9) / 8(3)
Corners
3 / 1
Cards (Y/R)
2/0 - 2/1
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Atlético Madrid -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Atlético Madrid)
Atlético Madrid By 1 goal
26.1%
Atlético Madrid By 2+ goals
36.9%
Real Madrid By 1 goal
11.1%
Real Madrid By 2+ goals
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlético
2
ATLÉTICO
Book Implied: 1.50
Real Madrid
1
REAL MADRID
Book Implied: 2
Simulated Score
Atlético
1
ATLÉTICO
Book Implied: 1.50
Real Madrid
2
REAL MADRID
Book Implied: 2
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Atlético Madrid
Win
44% Win Prob
B
Sim
Real Madrid
Loss
62% Win Prob
B
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Atlético Madrid (+0.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Sim
Real Madrid (-0.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
u3.0
Win
Proj Total: 3.0
A
Sim
u3.5
Win
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
Atlético vs Real Madrid
2 - 1
Mar 22, 2026
Real Madrid vs Atlético
3 - 2
Sep 27, 2025
Atlético vs Real Madrid
5 - 2
Feb 8, 2025
Real Madrid vs Atlético
1 - 1
Sep 29, 2024
Atlético vs Real Madrid
1 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Losses (L5)
+100.0% more
Real Madrid: 1.0
vs
Atlético: 2.0
Wins (L5)
+33.3% more
Real Madrid: 4.0
vs
Atlético: 3.0
Goals Conceded (L5)
+20.0% more
Real Madrid: 5.0
vs
Atlético: 6.0
Goals Scored (L5)
+18.2% more
Real Madrid: 13.0
vs
Atlético: 11.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
Real Madrid Score
1.0
1
Atlético Madrid Score
2.0
2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Atlético Madrid (Home)
vs
Real Madrid (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Book Line: 2.5 Goals
AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
AI Projected Score
2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Atlético Madrid
Real Madrid
Atlético Madrid
Real Madrid
ML
57%
4-3
71%
5-2
29%
2-5
71%
5-2
ATS
43%
3-4
43%
3-4
43%
3-4
43%
3-4
TTL
43%
3-4
67%
4-2-1
43%
3-4
67%
4-2-1