Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Getafe vs Málaga Getafe vs Málaga

GETAFEGETAFE

1-0-2  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sun, Sep 20 • 8:00 AM ET
Estadio Coliseum

MÁLAGAMÁLAGA

0-0  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
GETAFE
35%
DRAW
31%
MÁLAGA
35%
▲ Edge: +30% (Málaga)
52% Book Odds: -108
DRAW 31% Book Odds: +224
20% Book Odds: +399
Book Implied: 51.90% / 30.90% / 20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.0
Over / Under Line
Over 2.0 54%
Under 2.0 46%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
MÁLAGA
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Málaga)
GetafeGetafe (-0.5) 0 MálagaMálaga (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

44.5% / 55.5%

Shots (On Goal)

20(7) / 11(4)

Corners

5 / 9

Cards (Y/R)

4/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Málaga 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Málaga)

Getafe By 1 goal

21.1%

Getafe By 2+ goals

15.9%

Málaga By 1 goal

21.1%

Málaga By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
GETAFE
Book Implied: 1.20
1
MÁLAGA
Book Implied: 0.80
Simulated Score
1
GETAFE
Book Implied: 1.20
0
MÁLAGA
Book Implied: 0.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Loss
37% Win Prob
C
Sim Getafe Win
54% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Málaga (+0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Sim Getafe (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u2.0 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Sim u2.0 Win
Proj Total: 1.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 Getafe vs Málaga 1 - 0
May 19, 2018 Málaga vs Getafe 0 - 1
Jan 12, 2018 Getafe vs Málaga 1 - 0
Feb 5, 2016 Málaga vs Getafe 3 - 0
Sep 18, 2015 Getafe vs Málaga 1 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +50.0% more
Málaga: 3.0 vs Getafe: 2.0
Losses (L5) +50.0% more
Málaga: 2.0 vs Getafe: 3.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +50.0% more
Getafe: 6.0 vs Málaga: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Málaga Score 1.0 0
Getafe Score 1.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Getafe (Home) vs Málaga (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Getafe Share: 50.0% Málaga Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Getafe
Málaga
Getafe
Málaga
ML
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
71% 5-2
43% 3-4
ATS
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
TTL
57% 4-3
71% 5-2
57% 4-3
71% 5-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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