Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Queretaro vs León Queretaro vs León

QUERETAROQUERETARO

3-1-2  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sun, Sep 20 • 10:10 PM ET
Estadio Corregidora

LEÓNLEÓN

3-1-2  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
QUERETARO
61%
DRAW
21%
LEÓN
18%
▲ Edge: +19.40% (León)
35% Book Odds: +186
DRAW 29% Book Odds: +251
40% Book Odds: +151
Book Implied: 35% / 28.50% / 39.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 56%
Under 2.75 44%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
QUERETARO
Book Goal Line
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 goals (Queretaro)
QueretaroQueretaro (0) 0 LeónLeón (0)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

39.2% / 60.8%

Shots (On Goal)

19(4) / 14(7)

Corners

8 / 1

Cards (Y/R)

4/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Querétaro -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Querétaro)

Querétaro By 1 goal

26.1%

Querétaro By 2+ goals

36.9%

León By 1 goal

11.1%

León By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
QUERETARO
Book Implied: 1.40
1
LEÓN
Book Implied: 1.40
Simulated Score
2
QUERETARO
Book Implied: 1.40
1
LEÓN
Book Implied: 1.40
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Querétaro Loss
41% Win Prob
C
Sim Querétaro Loss
61% Win Prob
D
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Querétaro (+0) Push
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Querétaro (+0) Push
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o2.8 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 Queretaro vs León 1 - 1
Mar 4, 2026 León vs Queretaro 4 - 0
Feb 7, 2026 Queretaro vs León 2 - 0
Sep 14, 2025 Queretaro vs León 0 - 1
Aug 30, 2025 León vs Queretaro 3 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Queretaro: 1.0 vs León: 0.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Queretaro: 1.0 vs León: 2.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +66.7% more
Queretaro: 3.0 vs León: 5.0
Goals Scored (L5) +25.0% more
Queretaro: 5.0 vs León: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
León Score 1.0 1
Querétaro Score 2.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Querétaro (Home) vs León (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Querétaro Share: 66.7% León Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Querétaro
León
Querétaro
León
ML
25% 2-6
44% 4-5
25% 2-6
22% 2-7
ATS
67% 4-2-2
57% 4-3-2
29% 2-5-1
29% 2-5-2
TTL
71% 5-2-1
33% 3-6
43% 3-4-1
44% 4-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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