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TOLUCATOLUCA

4-1-1  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sun, Sep 20 • 8:00 PM ET
Estadio Nemesio Díez Riega

SANTOSSANTOS

0-1-5  |  Away

3
AI Model Win Probability
TOLUCA
61%
DRAW
21%
SANTOS
18%
▲ Edge: +18.20% (Santos)
83% Book Odds: -483
DRAW 14% Book Odds: +638
8% Book Odds: +1167
Book Implied: 82.80% / 13.60% / 7.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 3.5 38%
Under 3.5 62%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+1.0
SANTOS
Book Goal Line
+2
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 goals (Santos)
TolucaToluca (-2) 0 SantosSantos (+2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

45.9% / 54.1%

Shots (On Goal)

24(9) / 22(6)

Corners

6 / 7

Cards (Y/R)

1/1 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Santos +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Santos)

Toluca By 1 goal

26.1%

Toluca By 2+ goals

36.9%

Santos By 1 goal

11.1%

Santos By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
TOLUCA
Book Implied: 2.80
1
SANTOS
Book Implied: 0.80
Simulated Score
3
TOLUCA
Book Implied: 2.80
1
SANTOS
Book Implied: 0.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Toluca Loss
74% Win Prob
A
Sim Toluca Loss
83% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Santos (+2) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
C
Sim Santos (+2) Win
Proj Goals: +2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.5 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Sim o3.5 Win
Proj Total: 4.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 Toluca vs Santos 2 - 3
Jan 14, 2026 Toluca vs Santos 3 - 1
Jul 16, 2025 Santos vs Toluca 2 - 4
Apr 6, 2025 Toluca vs Santos 2 - 1
Sep 22, 2024 Santos vs Toluca 2 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +300.0% more
Toluca: 4.0 vs Santos: 1.0
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Toluca: 0.0 vs Santos: 2.0
Goals Scored (L5) +150.0% more
Toluca: 10.0 vs Santos: 4.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +150.0% more
Toluca: 2.0 vs Santos: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Santos Score 1.0 3
Toluca Score 2.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Toluca (Home) vs Santos (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Toluca Share: 66.7% Santos Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Toluca
Santos
Toluca
Santos
ML
67% 6-3
56% 5-4
67% 6-3
78% 7-2
ATS
50% 4-4-1
50% 4-4-1
75% 6-2-1
75% 6-2-1
TTL
38% 3-5-1
65% 5-3
75% 6-2-1
53% 4-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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