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PACHUCAPACHUCA

3-4-4  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sun, Sep 20 • 8:00 PM ET
Estadio Hidalgo

TIJUANATIJUANA

4-3-3  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
PACHUCA
61%
DRAW
21%
TIJUANA
18%
▲ Edge: +20.20% (Tijuana)
59% Book Odds: -143
DRAW 25% Book Odds: +297
20% Book Odds: +408
Book Implied: 58.80% / 25.20% / 19.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5 59%
Under 2.5 42%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
PACHUCA
Book Goal Line
-0.75
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Pachuca)
PachucaPachuca (-0.8) 0 TijuanaTijuana (+0.8)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

57.8% / 42.2%

Shots (On Goal)

29(11) / 8(5)

Corners

10 / 0

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Pachuca -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Pachuca)

Pachuca By 1 goal

26.1%

Pachuca By 2+ goals

36.9%

Tijuana By 1 goal

11.1%

Tijuana By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
PACHUCA
Book Implied: 1.60
1
TIJUANA
Book Implied: 0.90
Simulated Score
2
PACHUCA
Book Implied: 1.60
0
TIJUANA
Book Implied: 0.90
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pachuca Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Pachuca Loss
80% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pachuca (-0.75) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Pachuca (-0.75) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o2.5 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim u2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 Pachuca vs Tijuana 2 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +250.0% more
Pachuca: 2.0 vs Tijuana: 7.0
Draws (L5) +200.0% more
Pachuca: 2.0 vs Tijuana: 0.0
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Pachuca: 0.0 vs Tijuana: 2.0
Goals Scored (L5) +16.7% more
Pachuca: 7.0 vs Tijuana: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Tijuana Score 1.0 2
Pachuca Score 2.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Pachuca (Home) vs Tijuana (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Pachuca Share: 66.7% Tijuana Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Pachuca
Tijuana
Pachuca
Tijuana
ML
36% 4-7
20% 2-8
20% 2-8
50% 5-5
ATS
70% 7-3-1
75% 6-2-2
20% 2-8
50% 4-4-2
TTL
55% 6-5
60% 6-4
30% 3-7
40% 4-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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