HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
80-81 | Road
13
ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
64-97 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Hayden Wesneski
#39 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jack Perkins
#50 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hayden Wesneski | 5-2 | 3.50 | 1.15 | 54.0 | 41 |
| Jack Perkins | 3-12 | 5.90 | 1.45 | 116.0 | 131 |
5-2
W-L
3-12
3.50 Ldr
ERA
5.90
1.15 Ldr
WHIP
1.45
54.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 116.0
41
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 131
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
57%
ATHLETICS
43%
▲ Edge: +0.70% (ATH)
ASTROS
63%
Book Odds: -168
ATHLETICS
42%
Book Odds: +139
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
10.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.0 (Under)
Over 10.0
41%
Under 10.0
59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Athletics)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.7%
HOU By 3-4 runs
17.2%
ATH By 1-2 runs
15.3%
ATH By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
5.2
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 5.80
Athletics
3.8
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 5.80
Athletics
4
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Astros
Win
57% Win Prob
C
Sim
Astros
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Athletics (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Athletics (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
u10.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
u10.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
HOU @ ATH
9 - 0
Sep 26, 2026
HOU @ ATH
13 - 2
Sep 25, 2026
HOU @ ATH
5 - 6
Sep 24, 2026
HOU @ ATH
7 - 5
Aug 23, 2026
ATH @ HOU
7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Athletics
ATH
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.582
OPS
▲
.719
4
Home Runs
▲
194
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+68.0% more
Houston: 0.8
vs
Athletics: 0.1
Home Runs (L5)
+54.7% more
Houston: 2.6
vs
Athletics: 1.2
Walks (L5)
+15.9% more
Houston: 3.8
vs
Athletics: 3.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+13.0% more
Houston: 9.5
vs
Athletics: 8.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
5.2
13
ATH Score
3.8
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.8
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.8 / 8.1
6.0 / 16.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 2.6
0.0 / 5.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 9.5
8.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
16.2 / 17.3
6.0 / 34.0
Walks
3.2 / 3.8
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -174 / +143
→
-168 / +139
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
10
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
HOU
ATH
HOU
ML
59%
95-67
50%
81-82
54%
87-74
47%
77-87
ATS
52%
84-78
56%
91-72
50%
81-80
55%
90-74
TTL
54%
84-73-5
45%
70-84-9
42%
66-90-5
45%
69-86-9
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