Home / MLB Projections MLB / Angels @ Mariners LAA @ SEA

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

62-99  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 9:40 PM ET
T-Mobile Park
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

75-86  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Ryan Johnson
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Johnson

#32 | Starting Pitcher
@
Kade Anderson
STARTING PITCHER

Kade Anderson

#13 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ryan Johnson 5-9 4.93 1.35 95.0 76
Kade Anderson 2-2 4.18 1.21 32.1 28
5-9 W-L 2-2
4.93 ERA Ldr 4.18
1.35 WHIP Ldr 1.21
95.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 32.1
76 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 28
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
35%
📊
MARINERS
65%
▲ Edge: +3.70% (SEA)
ANGELS 44% Book Odds: +130
MARINERS 61% Book Odds: -157
Book Implied: 43.50% / 61.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 7.0 70%
Under 7.0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SEATTLE
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Seattle)
AngelsLAA (+1.5) 0 MarinersSEA (-1.5)
Seattle Mariners (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

30.9%

Mariners Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

LAA By 1-2 runs

13.6%

LAA By 3-4 runs

7.8%

SEA By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SEA By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 2.80
5.5
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
4
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 2.80
5
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mariners Win
65% Win Prob
B
Sim Mariners Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mariners (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Angels (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 LAA @ SEA 3 - 7
Sep 26, 2026 LAA @ SEA 4 - 8
Sep 25, 2026 LAA @ SEA 7 - 5
Sep 24, 2026 LAA @ SEA 6 - 4
Sep 16, 2026 SEA @ LAA 7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
Seattle SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.04
Runs / Game
▲ 4.10
.234 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .314
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .379
.679
OPS
▲ .693
154
Home Runs
▲ 182
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +18.2% more
Seattle: 182.0 vs Los Angeles: 154.0
Errors (L5) +14.0% more
Seattle: 0.9 vs Los Angeles: 0.7
Walks (L5) +14.0% more
Seattle: 4.6 vs Los Angeles: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season) +1.5% more
Seattle: 4.1 vs Los Angeles: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 3.5 4
SEA Score 5.5 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.7 2.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.1 / 9.2 12.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.2 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.5 / 10.1 7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 10.8 / 15.1 18.0 / 7.0
Walks 4.6 / 4.0 6.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +112 / -135 → +130 / -157 ↑
24%TICKETS76%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
30%TICKETS70%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7 → 7
95%TICKETS5%
95%MONEY5%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
SEA Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
LAA
SEA
LAA
ML
50% 81-81
59% 96-66
52% 85-77
55% 89-73
ATS
60% 98-64
60% 97-65
59% 95-67
51% 82-80
TTL
56% 85-67-10
53% 83-74-5
53% 81-71-10
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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