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ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

86-75  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 8:40 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

90-71  |  Home

10
Probable Pitchers
Taylor Clarke
STARTING PITCHER

Taylor Clarke

#45 | Relief Pitcher
@
Walker Buehler
STARTING PITCHER

Walker Buehler

#10 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Taylor Clarke 2-4 2.86 0.97 72.1 45
Walker Buehler 9-6 4.56 1.34 150.0 128
2-4 W-L 9-6
2.86 Ldr ERA 4.56
0.97 Ldr WHIP 1.34
72.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 150.0
45 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 128
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
42%
📊
PADRES
58%
▲ Edge: +2.20% (SD)
DIAMONDBACKS 49% Book Odds: +104
PADRES 56% Book Odds: -126
Book Implied: 49% / 55.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.0 61%
Under 8.0 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
ARIZONA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
DiamondbacksARI (+1.5) 0 PadresSD (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Diamondbacks Cover

64.6%

Padres Cover

35.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

ARI By 1-2 runs

15.0%

ARI By 3-4 runs

9.2%

SD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SD By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3.20
5
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
4
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3.20
6
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Padres Win
58% Win Prob
C
Sim Padres Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim Padres (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
B
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 ARI @ SD 4 - 9
Sep 26, 2026 ARI @ SD 7 - 10
Sep 25, 2026 ARI @ SD 11 - 4
Aug 6, 2026 SD @ ARI 5 - 1
Aug 5, 2026 SD @ ARI 4 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona ARI
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.56
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.720
OPS
▲ .925
166 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +43.1% more
San Diego: 9.2 vs Arizona: 6.4
Runs per Game (Season) +31.6% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Arizona: 4.6
OPS (Season) +20.5%
San Diego: 92.5% vs Arizona: 72.0%
Slugging Pct (Season) +16.1%
San Diego: 56.3% vs Arizona: 40.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 3.5 7
SD Score 5.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.3 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.6 / 10.9 13.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 2.2 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 6.4 6.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 11.6 / 21.0 23.0 / 14.0
Walks 2.2 / 4.6 4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +118 / -142 → +104 / -126 ↓
42%TICKETS58%
92%MONEY8%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
50%TICKETS50%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7 → 8 ↑
91%TICKETS9%
95%MONEY5%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
ARI
SD
ARI
ML
51% 85-83
54% 87-74
51% 85-82
54% 86-74
ATS
54% 91-77
57% 91-70
55% 92-75
56% 89-71
TTL
51% 82-80-6
52% 80-73-8
54% 86-74-6
49% 73-77-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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