TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
98-63 | Road
12
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
87-74 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Griffin Jax
#22 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Aaron Nola
#27 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Jax | 8-10 | 3.62 | 1.19 | 109.1 | 115 |
| Aaron Nola | 7-11 | 4.54 | 1.33 | 174.1 | 177 |
8-10
W-L
7-11
3.62 Ldr
ERA
4.54
1.19 Ldr
WHIP
1.33
109.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 174.1
115
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 177
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
53%
PHILLIES
47%
▲ Edge: +4.50% (TB)
RAYS
49%
Book Odds: +106
PHILLIES
56%
Book Odds: -127
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.0
66%
Under 7.0
34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
TB By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TB By 3-4 runs
17.5%
PHI By 1-2 runs
15.0%
PHI By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 2.80
Philadelphia
3.5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 2.80
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rays
Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
A
Sim
Rays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.5
A
Sim
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
TB @ PHI
3 - 7
Sep 26, 2026
TB @ PHI
12 - 1
Sep 25, 2026
TB @ PHI
2 - 0
May 8, 2025
PHI @ TB
7 - 6
May 7, 2025
PHI @ TB
7 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.728
▲
OPS
.724
169
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.2% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Home Runs (L5)
+46.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.6
vs
Philadelphia: 0.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+33.6% more
Tampa Bay: 9.6
vs
Philadelphia: 6.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+22.9% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
5.0
12
PHI Score
3.5
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.4
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
5.4 / 6.4
7.0 / 17.0
Home Runs
0.2 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.4 / 9.6
8.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
7.2 / 9.0
10.0 / 25.0
Walks
3.9 / 3.3
5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +137 / -166
→
+106 / -127
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5
→
7
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
PHI
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
TB
PHI
TB
ML
59%
97-67
58%
95-68
49%
80-84
58%
95-68
ATS
65%
107-57
60%
97-66
51%
83-81
55%
90-73
TTL
57%
88-67-9
47%
73-81-9
51%
78-76-9
51%
78-75-10
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