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CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

89-73  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:05 PM ET
Tropicana Field
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

87-75  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Shota Imanaga
STARTING PITCHER

Shota Imanaga

#18 | Starting Pitcher
@
Tanner Houck
STARTING PITCHER

Tanner Houck

#89 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Shota Imanaga 11-10 3.74 1.10 173.1 171
Tanner Houck 0-0 0.00 0.00 -- --
11-10 W-L 0-0
3.74 ERA Ldr 0.00
1.10 WHIP Ldr 0.00
173.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) --
171 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
59%
📊
RED SOX
41%
▲ Edge: +4.70% (CHC)
CUBS 55% Book Odds: -120
RED SOX 50% Book Odds: -101
Book Implied: 54.50% / 50.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 7.5 60%
Under 7.5 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
BOSTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
CubsCHC (-1.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

35.4%

Red Sox Cover

64.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CHC By 3-4 runs

17.5%

BOS By 1-2 runs

15.0%

BOS By 3-4 runs

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.50
3.5
BOSTON
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.50
4
BOSTON
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Cubs Win
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Red Sox (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim Cubs (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
B
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 CHC @ BOS 6 - 2
Sep 25, 2026 CHC @ BOS 0 - 2
Jul 20, 2025 BOS @ CHC 6 - 1
Jul 19, 2025 BOS @ CHC 0 - 6
Jul 18, 2025 BOS @ CHC 1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
Boston BOS
2
Games Played
2
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 1.00
.129 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.229 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .250
.374
OPS
▲ .409
0
Home Runs
▲ 2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +34.0% more
Chicago: 0.6 vs Boston: 0.3
Total Bases (L5) +28.8% more
Chicago: 10.7 vs Boston: 7.6
Hits (L5) +24.5% more
Chicago: 7.5 vs Boston: 5.7
On-Base Pct (Season) +7.0%
Chicago: 22.9% vs Boston: 15.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 5.0 6
BOS Score 3.5 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.4 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 5.7 / 7.5 5.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 0.3 / 0.6 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 10.4 / 8.0 7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 7.6 / 10.7 8.0 / 22.0
Walks 3.4 / 3.0 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -120 / -101 → -120 / -101
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5 → 7.5 ↑
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
BOS
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
CHC
BOS
CHC
ML
50% 80-80
58% 93-68
47% 76-87
51% 82-79
ATS
58% 93-67
61% 97-63-1
48% 79-84
47% 75-85-1
TTL
46% 72-83-5
52% 81-74-6
47% 74-83-6
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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